Utah Prediction Contest: vs. Michigan

[Sullyute]

Well, we are just a little more than two weeks away from kickoff, so I thought we should start up the annual Utah Prediction Contest again. Like prior years, it will not be fancy but you get what you pay for. Hostile won it all the first year and DrumNFeather took the title last year. Not to diminish their great achievements, but anyone that actually makes all 13 predictions (hopefully I didn’t just jinx our bowl chances) has a great shot at winning, since most posters forget a game or two… or eleven.

The rules are pretty simple. There are a total of 100 points available for each game. 34 points for picking the winner (all or nothing), 33 points for picking the correct Utah score (percentage available), 33 points for picking the correct opponent score (percentage available). The percentage will basically be a reduction of 5% for every point you are off from the actual score.

We will just do one week at a time. So just post your predictions below for Michigan. The only other rule is no predictions will be allowed after kick off. If you have any questions let me know or just predict away.

[sancho]

Well, we are just a little more than two weeks away from kickoff, so I thought we should start up the annual Utah Prediction Contest again. Like prior years, it will not be fancy but you get what you pay for. Hostile won it all the first year and DrumNFeather took the title last year. Not to diminish their great achievements, but anyone that actually makes all 13 predictions (hopefully I didn’t just jinx our bowl chances) has a great shot at winning, since most posters forget a game or two… or eleven.

There needs to be a 10 point penalty for picking against Utah.

Utah 27
Michigan 20

[1MNUte]

I believe that we will win!

Utah 24
Michigan 17

Go UTES! Wish I could be there in person but I will do the cheering from here in Minnesota.

[DrumNFeather]

Well, we are just a little more than two weeks away from kickoff, so I thought we should start up the annual Utah Prediction Contest again. Like prior years, it will not be fancy but you get what you pay for. Hostile won it all the first year and DrumNFeather took the title last year. Not to diminish their great achievements, but anyone that actually makes all 13 predictions (hopefully I didn’t just jinx our bowl chances) has a great shot at winning, since most posters forget a game or two… or eleven.

The rules are pretty simple. There are a total of 100 points available for each game. 34 points for picking the winner (all or nothing), 33 points for picking the correct Utah score (percentage available), 33 points for picking the correct opponent score (percentage available). The percentage will basically be a reduction of 5% for every point you are off from the actual score.

We will just do one week at a time. So just post your predictions below for Michigan. The only other rule is no predictions will be allowed after kick off. If you have any questions let me know or just predict away.

1545

[concerned]

Utah 24 Michigan 10

[chrisrenrut]

Utah 31
Michigan 21

[roseparkutes]

utah 37
khakis 13

[SoCalPat]

Utah 19
Michigan 13

[concerned]

Utah 19
Michigan 13


19? Do you figure Phillips is going to miss one extra point (two touchdowns and a field goal) or two extra points (three touchdowns) or we get a safety (two touchdowns and one field goal). Any other way?

[jrj84105]

Michigan 17
Utah 37

[SoCalPat]

19? Do you figure Phillips is going to miss one extra point (two touchdowns and a field goal) or two extra points (three touchdowns) or we get a safety (two touchdowns and one field goal). Any other way?

Four FGs plus one TD. The early season angst over the offense's inability to score TDs continues.

[concerned]

Four FGs plus one TD. The early season angst over the offense's inability to score TDs continues.

I cant add

[sancho]

Four FGs plus one TD. The early season angst over the offense's inability to score TDs continues.

I figured it was a TD with a missed extra point, compounded by a missed 2-point-conversion attempt to make up for the missed extra point. Then we get wise and just take the extra point on the third TD.

[SoCalPat]

I figured it was a TD with a missed extra point, compounded by a missed 2-point-conversion attempt to make up for the missed extra point. Then we get wise and just take the extra point on the third TD.

Actually, if Michigan was at the 13 points I predict they'll finish with, and presuming it's late in the game, we'd be stone-cold fools not to go for 2 on our third TD because a 5-point lead in the fourth quarter is worthless when you can get to 7. You'd never kick the PAT there to go up 6. OK, Kyle might, but it would be a huge mistake to do so.

[sancho]

Actually, if Michigan was at the 13 points I predict they'll finish with, and presuming it's late in the game, we'd be stone-cold fools not to go for 2 on our third TD because a 5-point lead in the fourth quarter is worthless when you can get to 7. You'd never kick the PAT there to go up 6. OK, Kyle might, but it would be a huge mistake to do so.

No, our scoring comes in the first half. 2nd half is all 3 and outs on runs up the middle.

[hostile]

1545

No need to look in your rear-view mirror. I'm comin for you.

[hostile]

Utah-23
Michigan-17

[DrumNFeather]

Utah - 27
Michigan - 16

[tooblue]

The satin warriors: 16
Michigan: 10

[Sullyute]

The satin warriors: 16
Michigan: 10

:rockon: You were one of those guys that started strong and then fizzled last year. I would love to see you give the Utes fans a run for their money this year.

[Brian]

Utah: 13
Michigan: 3

[Utefan51]

Utah 27
Michigan 17
Late score by Michigan makes the score closer, but Utah dominates and is in control from the 2nd quarter on!

[wally]

Utah 24
Michigan 3

[Utebiquitous]

Utah 31 Michigan 13. Defense directly/indirectly accounts for at least 10 points.

[SoCalPat]

I can only classify those predicting Utah scores over 30 as exuberantly optimistic. Utah rarely tops 30 points at home (four times total vs. P5 teams in Pac-12 era under Kyle, two of those games were against North bottom feeders Cal and Wazzu in 2013) and Michigan, even for as bad as they were last year, gave up 30 or more just four times, all to bowl teams and two of those teams finished the year ranked in the top 5 (Ohio State, Michigan State -- the other two were Minnesota and Notre Dame, both of whom won 8 games in the regular season). With a new OC and green receivers at Utah, plus Michigan's traditionally decent defense, I'm not expecting any fireworks.

[Scratch]

Utes 20-16

[Rocker Ute]

Utes 35-17

[Rocker Ute]

I can only classify those predicting Utah scores over 30 as exuberantly optimistic. Utah rarely tops 30 points at home (four times total vs. P5 teams in Pac-12 era under Kyle, two of those games were against North bottom feeders Cal and Wazzu in 2013) and Michigan, even for as bad as they were last year, gave up 30 or more just four times, all to bowl teams and two of those teams finished the year ranked in the top 5 (Ohio State, Michigan State -- the other two were Minnesota and Notre Dame, both of whom won 8 games in the regular season). With a new OC and green receivers at Utah, plus Michigan's traditionally decent defense, I'm not expecting any fireworks.

On second thought... I revise my Utes 35-17 prediction... 42-17.

[Rocker Ute]

On second thought... I revise my Utes 35-17 prediction... 42-17.

After being reminded of this throwing motion, I revise it back to 35-17

1553

How in the world did this throwing motion not get corrected in Jr High, High School and now 4 years of college? His release is probably lower than Britian Covey's.

[U-Ute]

Cupcake U: 24
Michigan: 13

[SigmaUte]

Utah 27
Michigan 17

[LA Ute]

I am afraid to make a prediction. My Long-time Utes Football Fan PTSD (LUFF PTSD) kicks in when I contemplate a game like this one. LUFF PTSD is characterized by a gnawing fear that the Utes will find a way to blow a high-profile football game they should win. The condition went into remission when Urban Meyer was coach but it's been back ever since he left.

[SoCalPat]

I am afraid to make a prediction. My Long-time Utes Football Fan PTSD (LUFF PTSD) kicks in when I contemplate a game like this one. LUFF PTSD is characterized by a gnawing fear that the Utes will find a way to blow a high-profile football game they should win. The condition went into remission when Urban Meyer was coach but it's been back ever since he left.

Is this really a "should-win" game? We're only favored by 6. ESPN's Power Index gives Michigan a 45 percent chance of winning this game, and projects it to go 8-4 -- or about 1.5 games better than Utah. The question we should be asking ourselves is, if we lose, is it an indicator of how the season will play out? Win or lose, regardless of how it's done, I think it would be a mistake to make any snap judgments. Now, if we start 1-2 or worse, I'll be worried.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Utah 24
Jake from State Farm 21

[LA Ute]

Is this really a "should-win" game? We're only favored by 6. ESPN's Power Index gives Michigan a 45 percent chance of winning this game, and projects it to go 8-4 -- or about 1.5 games better than Utah. The question we should be asking ourselves is, if we lose, is it an indicator of how the season will play out? Win or lose, regardless of how it's done, I think it would be a mistake to make any snap judgments. Now, if we start 1-2 or worse, I'll be worried.

Maybe it falls into a different category: a "'winnable game attended by high opportunity," e.g., national TV, intense sports news media attention, etc. There are lots of Utes fans and observers (Riley of ESPN700, for example) who've been talking about this as a "should win" game for some time now. That makes me nervous. LUFF PTSD.

[concerned]

I am afraid to make a prediction. My Long-time Utes Football Fan PTSD (LUFF PTSD) kicks in when I contemplate a game like this one. LUFF PTSD is characterized by a gnawing fear that the Utes will find a way to blow a high-profile football game they should win. The condition went into remission when Urban Meyer was coach but it's been back ever since he left.

You are describing the 2006 UCLA game. That wasnt a "should win" necessarily, and on the road, but we certainly had high expectations and showed we were not ready for prime time. Very disappointing. Hope you are not presaging a repeat.

[SoCalPat]

You are describing the 2006 UCLA game. That wasnt a "should win" necessarily, and on the road, but we certainly had high expectations and showed we were not ready for prime time. Very disappointing. Hope you are not presaging a repeat.

We were a 3 point dog in that game. At home, we're a 3 point favorite. Not too much different than what we have against Michigan. Very appropriate comparison.

[U-Ute]

Utah 24
Jake from State Farm 21

:rofl:

I didn't put that together. That's awesome.

[Brian]

Utah 24
Jake from State Farm 21


:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

[Mano]

Utah 31
UM 13

[Devildog]

Utah 24

Michigan 17

[Damage U]

utah - 30
um - 16

[eldiente]

Utah 21
Michigan 27


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[LA Ute]

Utah 31
Harbaugh 17

[Senioritis]

Utes 23
Fighting Gerald Fords 13

[EutawStUtesFan]

Utes: 28
The Corn and Blue: 21

[Applejack]

Utah 18
JIMHARBAUGHISAMAZINGILOVEHIMOMGOMGOMG!!!!!@!!!!!! 12

[UTEopia]

Utah 22 - Michigan 13. The Utes lead 19 - 13 going into the 4th quarter. Harbaugh goes for it on a 4th and 3 or 4 from the Utah 30 and the defense holds. The Utes drive down and kick a FG with a little less than 2 minutes remaining. Phillips kicks 5 FG's and the Utes score 1 TD. Despite the victory, the message boards go crazy with posts critical of the offense and Travis.

[concerned]

Utah 22 - Michigan 13. The Utes lead 19 - 13 going into the 4th quarter. Harbaugh goes for it on a 4th and 3 or 4 from the Utah 30 and the defense holds. The Utes drive down and kick a FG with a little less than 2 minutes remaining. Phillips kicks 5 FG's and the Utes score 1 TD. Despite the victory, the message boards go crazy with posts critical of the offense and Travis.

If at any point, the Utes have 19 points on the board, I will give you and Socalpat a big pat on the back.

[NorthwestUteFan]

If at any point, the Utes have 19 points on the board, I will give you and Socalpat a big pat on the back.

Don't forget Aaron Roderick and Jim Harding. At some specific point total they will deserve a huge pat on the back (although that threshold is probably closer to 28).

And I want to see the offense win the game. If Special Teams and the Defense also add touchdowns that will be icing on the cake. But I am sick and tired of having an offense sputter all game and fail to cross Midfield, only to break free for a 45 yd TD run or a 65 yd padding TD, exciting though they may be.

(See the WSU game last year...)

[Homer Crimson]

Utes 27

Harbros 13

[SoCalPat]

First team to 20 wins. I'll be shocked if both teams reach it. Vegas is essentially predicting a 26-20 Utah win, and historically that's too high-scoring for these teams when they meet. Total of 46.5 screams big bet on the under.

[Redbird]

Utah 17
Michigan 13

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Utes: 27
Michelin: 10

[Devildog]

Utah 24

Michigan 17

Uh yeah...hell yeah.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Outstanding DD

[hostile]

Uh yeah...hell yeah.
Nice shot kid.

Don't get cocky.

:)

[DrumNFeather]

Lots of similar score predictions. Two guys came in at 24-17 and I think another, hostile was 23-17. I had 27-16....good for a top 5 finish?

[LA Ute]

If Formerly Automatic Andy hits those two FGs I win. I hate him.

[SoCalPat]

Lots of similar score predictions. Two guys came in at 24-17 and I think another, hostile was 23-17. I had 27-16....good for a top 5 finish?

It was a great game for Utah picks. Many of the exuberant (Utah scoring 27+) had Michigan finishing with 17, your cautiously-optimistic fan had Utah scoring no more than 24.

Normally, I'd feel great about a 19-13 prediction in a 24-17 final, but there's close to 10 people (I stopped counting after 5) that were more "correct" than I was.

[Sullyute]

Sorry for the delay, I have been out of town. I will have the results later this afternoon.

[Sullyute]

Ok, here are the results of the Michigan game:

Alphabetical:


Rank
UB5 Poster
Utah
Opp
Points


1
1MNUte
24
17
100


20
Applejack
18
12
81.85


30
Brian
13
3
58.75


20
chrisenrut
31
21
81.85


12
concerned
24
10
88.45


15
Damage U
30
16
88.45


1
Devildog
24
17
100


6
DrumNFeather
27
16
93.4


18
Dwight Schr-Ute
27
10
83.5


31
eldiente
21
27
44.55


16
EutawStUtesFan
28
21
86.8


12
Homer Crimson
27
13
88.45


3
hostile
23
17
98.35


26
jrj84105
37
17
78.55


12
LA Ute
31
17
88.45


20
Mano
31
13
81.85


6
NorthwestUteFan
24
21
93.4


20
Redbird
17
13
81.85


20
Rocker Ute
35
17
81.85


29
roseparkutes
37
13
71.95


18
sancho
27
10
83.5


9
Scratch
20
16
91.75


9
Senioritis
23
13
91.75


4
SigmaUte
27
17
95.05


17
SoCalPat
19
13
85.15


28
tooblue
16
10
75.25


20
Utebiquitous
31
13
81.85


4
Utefan51
27
17
95.05


11
UTEopia
22
13
90.1


6
U-Ute
24
13
93.4


27
Wally
24
3
76.9




Rank:


Rank
UB5 Poster
Utah
Opp
Points


1
1MNUte
24
17
100


1
Devildog
24
17
100


3
hostile
23
17
98.35


4
SigmaUte
27
17
95.05


4
Utefan51
27
17
95.05


6
DrumNFeather
27
16
93.4


6
NorthwestUteFan
24
21
93.4


6
U-Ute
24
13
93.4


9
Scratch
20
16
91.75


9
Senioritis
23
13
91.75


11
UTEopia
22
13
90.1


12
concerned
24
10
88.45


12
Homer Crimson
27
13
88.45


12
LA Ute
31
17
88.45


15
Damage U
30
16
88.45


16
EutawStUtesFan
28
21
86.8


17
SoCalPat
19
13
85.15


18
Dwight Schr-Ute
27
10
83.5


18
sancho
27
10
83.5


20
Applejack
18
12
81.85


20
chrisenrut
31
21
81.85


20
Mano
31
13
81.85


20
Redbird
17
13
81.85


20
Rocker Ute
35
17
81.85


20
Utebiquitous
31
13
81.85


26
jrj84105
37
17
78.55


27
Wally
24
3
76.9


28
tooblue
16
10
75.25


29
roseparkutes
37
13
71.95


30
Brian
13
3
58.75


31
eldiente
21
27
44.55

[LA Ute]

I don't understand the scoring. FOr example, how is it that scratch and Senioritis are tied at 9th, with different predictions?

[Senioritis]

I don't understand the scoring. FOr example, how is it that scratch and Senioritis are tied at 9th, with different predictions?

We asked to be placed next to each other so we could spoon.

[SoCalPat]

I don't understand the scoring. FOr example, how is it that scratch and Senioritis are tied at 9th, with different predictions?

They're actually the same. Scratch was off each team's final score by 4 (Utah) and 1 (Michigan) points. So was Senioritis, he just had the teams reversed. He was off one point on Utah's final score, but 4 points on Michigan's.



9
Scratch
20
16
91.75


9
Senioritis
23
13
91.75

[Rocker Ute]

We asked to be placed next to each other so we could spoon.

"Just friends" spooning, I assume.

[NorthwestUteFan]

"Just friends" spooning, I assume.

ALL spooning is friendly... :D

[Sullyute]

I don't understand the scoring. FOr example, how is it that scratch and Senioritis are tied at 9th, with different predictions?

So you get 34 points for picking the winning team (all or nothing). You get 33 points for picking the correct Utah score (percentage available) and 33 points for picking the opponents score (percentage available). For a total of 100 points each game. I have it set up so that for every point you are off from the actual score is a reduction of 5% of the 33 points available. So if you are more than 20 points off from the actual score then you would get zero points.

Scratch got 34 points for picking the right winning team. Scratch's prediction was four points off from the Utah score so his points (33 possible) were reduced to 80% or 26.4. Scratch was only one point off on Michigan's score so he got 95% of the possible points (33) or 31.35. So his total came to 91.75.

Senioritis also picked the correct winning team and received 34 points. His prediction for Utah was only off by one point, so his points (33 possible) were reduced by 5% to 31.35. His Michigan score was off by four so his points (33 possible) were reduced by 20% to 26.4. So his total came to 91.75.

I am open to change the scoring to anything you want. If we want to drop the points for picking the winning team and just have it straight score picking that is fine with me. Giving points for picking the winning team helps when the game goes into overtime or when there is an in game injury (opposing QB, Center, etc get hurt in the game, so the points get schewed, we score a lot more or they score a lot less).

[Scratch]

We asked to be placed next to each other so we could spoon.

What can I say, I'm a sucker for musical theater.

[wally]

27th place.......YESSS!!!!

[LA Ute]

So you get 34 points for picking the winning team (all or nothing). You get 33 points for picking the correct Utah score (percentage available) and 33 points for picking the opponents score (percentage available). For a total of 100 points each game. I have it set up so that for every point you are off from the actual score is a reduction of 5% of the 33 points available. So if you are more than 20 points off from the actual score then you would get zero points.

Scratch got 34 points for picking the right winning team. Scratch's prediction was four points off from the Utah score so his points (33 possible) were reduced to 80% or 26.4. Scratch was only one point off on Michigan's score so he got 95% of the possible points (33) or 31.35. So his total came to 91.75.

Senioritis also picked the correct winning team and received 34 points. His prediction for Utah was only off by one point, so his points (33 possible) were reduced by 5% to 31.35. His Michigan score was off by four so his points (33 possible) were reduced by 20% to 26.4. So his total came to 91.75.

I am open to change the scoring to anything you want. If we want to drop the points for picking the winning team and just have it straight score picking that is fine with me. Giving points for picking the winning team helps when the game goes into overtime or when there is an in game injury (opposing QB, Center, etc get hurt in the game, so the points get schewed, we score a lot more or they score a lot less).

This is fine with me. I was just wondering. I just know that U-Ute is cheating, somehow.