The College Football Playoff rankings thread

[SoCalPat]

Very relevant to warrant its own post.

As we saw last year, the CFP rankings hardly mirrored what the polls had. That speaks well for a team like Utah, which has no FCS wins, a non-con win vs. a P5 and a road win vs. a G5. However, we're coming off two rather meh performances, especially on offense.

I'm predicting a top 4 of Ohio State, Clemson, LSU and TCU. (Baylor is 5th). We'll be no worse than 13th, but I think we could sneak into 12th. Okie State doesn't have the wins or SOS, even being undefeated, to warrant being above Utah just yet.

[Jarid in Cedar]

I can see us above Notre Dame as well. Their best wins are Temple, Navy, and USC. We counter with Michigan, Oregon, Cal, and ASU. In addition to no FCS games, FSU and OSU are our only game against a team with a sub .500 record.

[SoCalPat]

I can see us above Notre Dame as well. Their best wins are Temple, Navy, and USC. We counter with Michigan, Oregon, Cal, and ASU. In addition to no FCS games, FSU and OSU are our only game against a team with a sub .500 record.

Maybe. Notre Dame beat USC (albeit in South Bend), and its only loss a 2-pointer to Clemson in less-than-ideal playing conditions. Temple winning would've been massive for us (and Florida)

[SoCalPat]

Open for dispute and debate, cuz research here is off the cuff ...

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. TCU
5. Iowa
6. Baylor (reversal of what I've said elsewhere -- taking into account QB replacement here, too)
7. Alabama
8. Stanford
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State
11. Utah
12. Michigan State
13. Florida
14. Memphis
15. Oklahoma
16. Florida State

[DrumNFeather]

Open for dispute and debate, cuz research here is off the cuff ...

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. TCU
5. Iowa
6. Baylor (reversal of what I've said elsewhere -- taking into account QB replacement here, too)
7. Alabama
8. Stanford
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State
11. Utah
12. Michigan State
13. Florida
14. Memphis
15. Oklahoma
16. Florida State

Iowa seems a bit high - do they have very many noteworthy wins?

Bama/LSU is huge this week.

[SoCalPat]

Iowa seems a bit high - do they have very many noteworthy wins?

Bama/LSU is huge this week.

Three of Iowa's wins are against teams 6-2 or better. Their SOS per Sagarin is also higher than Ohio State's or Michigan State's. I would give them the benefit of the doubt by a spot or two just for being undefeated, because the rest of their schedule is horrible and they're going to have to beat (likely) Ohio State to get into the playoff. This is as absolutely as high as they can get now, even by winning out. They are DOA for the playoffs as a one-loss team, and I expect them to get passed by other one-loss teams in the coming weeks. Even if Bama beats LSU, the latter ain't falling behind Iowa.

[DrumNFeather]

Three of Iowa's wins are against teams 6-2 or better. Their SOS per Sagarin is also higher than Ohio State's or Michigan State's. I would give them the benefit of the doubt by a spot or two just for being undefeated, because the rest of their schedule is horrible and they're going to have to beat (likely) Ohio State to get into the playoff. This is as absolutely as high as they can get now, even by winning out. They are DOA for the playoffs as a one-loss team, and I expect them to get passed by other one-loss teams in the coming weeks. Even if Bama beats LSU, the latter ain't falling behind Iowa.

Makes sense. I see similarities between our programs/coaches. Iowa is one of those teams that is always going to be a tough out, but every so often will jump into the national conversation, but never, ever be terrible as long as Ferentz is there.

[Scratch]

Not sure where else to put this, so I'll put it here.

Who goes to the Rose Bowl if Utah and USC both finish 7-2 in conference and Stanford wins out (beating USC, obviously) to win the P12 title and play in the playoff? I would think Utah gets the spot even though USC won the division, since USC would finish at 9-4 and Utah would be 10-2.

I guess you could run the same hypothetical with UCLA winning out, so Utah and UCLA both finish the regular season at 10-2, with UCLA dropping to 10-3 with a loss to Stanford. I don't think that's very likely for many reasons, but if that did happen then I would be very nervous that UCLA would knock us out.

[Mormon Red Death]

Not sure where else to put this, so I'll put it here.

Who goes to the Rose Bowl if Utah and USC both finish 7-2 in conference and Stanford wins out (beating USC, obviously) to win the P12 title and play in the playoff? I would think Utah gets the spot even though USC won the division, since USC would finish at 9-4 and Utah would be 10-2.

I guess you could run the same hypothetical with UCLA winning out, so Utah and UCLA both finish the regular season at 10-2, with UCLA dropping to 10-3 with a loss to Stanford. I don't think that's very likely for many reasons, but if that did happen then I would be very nervous that UCLA would knock us out.
USC and it would be an easy choice. Besides it would be the playoff committee who decides and they would easily choose usc or ucla over utah

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[chrisrenrut]

USC and it would be an easy choice. Besides it would be the playoff committee who decides and they would easily choose usc or ucla over utah

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From the Rose Bowl website:


The 102nd Rose Bowl Game will be held on January 1, 2016 at the Rose Bowl Stadium. The game will feature the champion of the Pac-12 and Big Ten Conference. If the Conference champion is selected to participate in the College Football Playoff Semifinal, the Rose Bowl Game will select the next best team in the conference.

"Next best team in the conference" is ambiguous. It doesn't say runner up, so I would imagine there is some flexibility there for them, if they felt the next best team was not the loser of the championship game.

[Redbird]

I saw this article yesterday:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14032925/how-college-football-playoff-committee-approach-first-rankings

As one that was fretting about 12-1 Utah needing help, seeing the criteria from the committee makes me more optimistic, considering how competitive the Big XII will be over the next 4 weeks.

[SoCalPat]

From the Rose Bowl website:



"Next best team in the conference" is ambiguous. It doesn't say runner up, so I would imagine there is some flexibility there for them, if they felt the next best team was not the loser of the championship game.

I don't think it's that ambiguous. "Next best" would be the highest ranked team in the CFP rankings. Wouldn't that have to be a 10-2 Utah ahead of a 9-4 USC?

[SoCalPat]

I saw this article yesterday:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14032925/how-college-football-playoff-committee-approach-first-rankings

As one that was fretting about 12-1 Utah needing help, seeing the criteria from the committee makes me more optimistic, considering how competitive the Big XII will be over the next 4 weeks.

Exactly. Unlike when we were climbing up the polls and the willy-nillys were encouraging baseless caution, we're in a scenario now where if we just win, a lot will sort itself out. There are many guaranteed built-in losses coming to teams ahead of us in the rankings.

[SeattleUte]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/03/upshot/2015-college-football-playoff-scenarios.html?hpw&rref=sports&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0

[Scratch]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/03/upshot/2015-college-football-playoff-scenarios.html?hpw&rref=sports&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0

That's a great way to look at it, but I doubt that a 1-loss B10 champ gets in over a 1-loss P12 champ.

[concerned]

That's a great way to look at it, but I doubt that a 1-loss B10 champ gets in over a 1-loss P12 champ.

A lot of that will depend on style points in the respective championship games.

[SoCalPat]

Depends on which big10 team had one loss. Ohio state would get in ahead of Utah, but Iowa probably would not.

Negatory. If OSU has one loss, it can only come in the Big 10 title game (meaning it won't win a conference title) or it will come in the regular season, likely to Michigan (whom we beat) or Michigan State (whom Michigan essentially beat). Again, that would likely shut OSU out of the league title game entirely, meaning no conference title and a vastly inferior resume to a Pac-12 champion Utah. We're late enough in the season where any loss by a Big 10 undefeated knocks them out of playoff consideration.

[mUUser]

Not specific to the selection committee, but there were enough skeptics out there when Utah was undefeated and ranked third. It's a difficult uphill battle, and winning out won't be enough IMO. USC was a miserable loss, and our best win this regular season is to a two loss Michigan. I think the loss overshadows the win here. To have a shot, I believe Stanford will have to win out, and win out convincingly, and USC has to win out convincingly. Otherwise, too many will remember how USC batted at us like a tiger playing with a mouse. Beating a highly regarded one loss Stanford in SFO is huge.

[Applejack]

Not specific to the selection committee, but there were enough skeptics out there when Utah was undefeated and ranked third. It's a difficult uphill battle, and winning out won't be enough IMO. USC was a miserable loss, and our best win this regular season is to a two loss Michigan. I think the loss overshadows the win here. To have a shot, I believe Stanford will have to win out, and win out convincingly, and USC has to win out convincingly. Otherwise, too many will remember how USC batted at us like a tiger playing with a mouse. Beating a highly regarded one loss Stanford in SFO is huge.

Usc isn't that bad of a loss. They are vaulting up the rankings and should be ranked next week. The computers think very highly of them (top ten). Plus, that two loss Michigan only has two losses because of a once in a lifetime screw up by their punter and because they had the misfortune of playing Utah. If you are arguing how ​we lost to usc was bad, that I have no argument for.

[Redbird]

Not specific to the selection committee, but there were enough skeptics out there when Utah was undefeated and ranked third. It's a difficult uphill battle, and winning out won't be enough IMO. USC was a miserable loss, and our best win this regular season is to a two loss Michigan. I think the loss overshadows the win here. To have a shot, I believe Stanford will have to win out, and win out convincingly, and USC has to win out convincingly. Otherwise, too many will remember how USC batted at us like a tiger playing with a mouse. Beating a highly regarded one loss Stanford in SFO is huge.

Stanford going into the title game 11-1 and USC winning out would be huge, absolutely. Michigan winning the B1G would be even more huge. But the committee proved to us last year that wins mean more than losses. Alabama's wins got them to #1 at the end of the year. Ohio St's wins (and SOS) got them in over Baylor and TCU despite an early, ugly loss to VaTech.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Utah checks in at #12 in the initial ranking

[DrumNFeather]

Utah checks in at #12 in the initial ranking
Stanford in at #11. A little lower than I thought.

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[Redbird]

Top 6: Clemson, LSU, Ohio St, Alabama, Notre Dame, Baylor.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14032925/how-college-football-playoff-committee-approach-first-rankings

[SoCalPat]

Open for dispute and debate, cuz research here is off the cuff ...

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. TCU
5. Iowa
6. Baylor (reversal of what I've said elsewhere -- taking into account QB replacement here, too)
7. Alabama
8. Stanford
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State
11. Utah
12. Michigan State
13. Florida
14. Memphis
15. Oklahoma
16. Florida State

Lots of misses here, and by misses, I mean being off by 3 or more spots. My top 3 and bottom 3 are pretty much dead on, but very little consensus in between, save for Baylor and Utah. At first glance, my biggest issue with with Michigan State-Michigan. I think wins delivered from the heavens should be viewed with the same skepticism as routs over unmanned foes -- how are either showing any kind of strength whatsoever? But I really think FSU's loss to Georgia Tech muddles things -- if you're going to peg Michigan State for an extremely unlikely win, don't you have to boost Florida State for suffering an incredibly unlikely loss?

[SoCalPat]

Kind of a fine line. To maintain any credibility, you have to count a win as a win and a loss as a loss.

I think the first ranking is more or less what should be expected from a bunch of football old timers.

Nightmare TV execs CFP Final Four: Utah, Iowa, Baylor, Ole Miss.

[Redbird]

538 gives us an 18% chance of winning the P12 (Stanford 46%, USC 31%) and a 6% chance of finishing in the top 4 (roughly 15th-best odds).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-our-college-football-playoff-predictions-work/

[LA Ute]

538 gives us an 18% chance of winning the P12 (Stanford 46%, USC 31%) and a 6% chance of finishing in the top 4 (roughly 15th-best odds).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-our-college-football-playoff-predictions-work/

I can live with Stanford winning the PAC-12. USC winning would be painful.

[LA Ute]

Win or lose, USC will beat us for in state recruits. But we can start to win back some of our Stanford losses if they can just manage to lose some more. I had such high hopes after their game against Northwestern.

You're being rational. I am being emotional.

What I'd love most to see is Utah as the PAC-12 champ and those two as also-rans. That's an outcome that appeals to me both rationally and emotionally.

[LA Ute]

I'll sign up for that. Also, when it happens, we embarrass Stanford in the championship game and Shaw has a huge emotional breakdown on the sidelines, going from yelling at refs to yelling at players to shoving an assistant coach and finally leaving in tears at the end without shaking hands with anyone. Is that too much to ask for?

I'd add this: All the Stanford players from Utah tweet that they made a mistake going to Stanford and wish they'd chosen Utah.

[mUUser]

....But we can start to win back some of our Stanford losses if they can just manage to lose some more.....

I think Stanford recruits from a completely different angle. Come play football in the Pac 12, and, in the process, get an education from one of the most prestigious institutions in the world. If the parent is anything like me, I'm telling my kid to get a free ride at Stanford, whether its for football or tiddlywinks.

[LA Ute]

Wilner's interesting thoughts on Stanford's and Utah's chances:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/11/04/college-football-playoff-committee-rankings-the-pac-12-teams-and-what-comes-next/

[LA Ute]

I think Stanford recruits from a completely different angle. Come play football in the Pac 12, and, in the process, get an education from one of the most prestigious institutions in the world. If the parent is anything like me, I'm telling my kid to get a free ride at Stanford, whether its for football or tiddlywinks.

Right. Stanford is like USC, in a much different way: We will lose a head-to-head competition for almost every recruit. When Stanford offers, we are pretty much out of luck. It's just part of the landscape we live in.

[HooperUte]

Joel Klatt says the committee doesn't know what they're doing:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/video/college-football-playoff-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-irish-florida-gators-baylor-bears-110415

ESPN, the biggest share holder in college football, wanted the committee to put together these rankings during the season just to be able to stir the pot. The committee doesn't know what they're doing mid-season because no team has clinched a conference championship yet. I wish the committee would just publish a pecking order similar to the link that Seattle Ute posted the other day because that's really how it will work at the end of the year. Link: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/03/upshot/2015-college-football-playoff-scenarios.html?hpw&rref=sports&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=1

A few things to watch for in the conference races during last weeks of the season:

The SEC west: Alabama is sitting at 3rd in their division and 4th in the country. Even with a win against LSU this Saturday they will still need Ole Miss to lose a game to win their division (very probable that LSU takes down Ole Miss, but we'll see). What would the committee do if both Ole Miss and Alabama win out?

Big 12: There are four teams still in contention for the conference title: undefeated Baylor, TCU, OK St, and one-loss Oklahoma. These four teams will all play each other over the next five weeks. Oklahoma is just as capable of winning that conference as anyone.

ACC: There's no way Clemsoning is dead. The only question is will it make a comeback before New Year's Eve?

[DrumNFeather]

I think it would be really interesting if the rankings weren't released until either after the regular season was complete, or, until the Sunday after the conference championship games were played just like the NCAA Tournament. I know why they do it - ratings etc. But when you think about it, none of these rankings ultimately are meaningful until all the games have been played. If the Big 12 is so concerned about being forgotten in the process, you schedule Bedlam and TCU/Baylor on the same weekend as the conference championships.

Speaking of the Big 12, Brett McMurphy from ESPN was on one of the local radio shows here discussing the rankings and they asked about the Big 12 expanding and he said that the conference wants to see what happens with the playoff this year and next before even considering expansion. That they like that every team plays one another in football and that everyone gets a home and home in basketball. It sounds like they are not necessarily convinced that whomever they bring in would give them enough new money to divide up that it would be worth it. Ultimately, I think they'll push to create a conference championship game for the current group of 10 teams they have.

He also said that the nightmare scenario for the committee, who seems to value head to head so much is Memphis and Ole Miss winning out. If Ole Miss wins the SEC, how do you deny an undefeated Memphis team at that point who beat Ole Miss soundly. He did, however say that as long as there is a 4 team playoff, he doesn't see anyone from the G5 conferences getting in.

[SoCalPat]

I think it would be really interesting if the rankings weren't released until either after the regular season was complete, or, until the Sunday after the conference championship games were played just like the NCAA Tournament. I know why they do it - ratings etc. But when you think about it, none of these rankings ultimately are meaningful until all the games have been played. If the Big 12 is so concerned about being forgotten in the process, you schedule Bedlam and TCU/Baylor on the same weekend as the conference championships.

Speaking of the Big 12, Brett McMurphy from ESPN was on one of the local radio shows here discussing the rankings and they asked about the Big 12 expanding and he said that the conference wants to see what happens with the playoff this year and next before even considering expansion. That they like that every team plays one another in football and that everyone gets a home and home in basketball. It sounds like they are not necessarily convinced that whomever they bring in would give them enough new money to divide up that it would be worth it. Ultimately, I think they'll push to create a conference championship game for the current group of 10 teams they have.

He also said that the nightmare scenario for the committee, who seems to value head to head so much is Memphis and Ole Miss winning out. If Ole Miss wins the SEC, how do you deny an undefeated Memphis team at that point who beat Ole Miss soundly. He did, however say that as long as there is a 4 team playoff, he doesn't see anyone from the G5 conferences getting in.

Because Ole Miss will have three top 10 wins on their resume (Alabama, LSU, Florida), and the latter win will have avenged the Rebels' earlier loss to the Gators.

Memphis has the meat-grinder of its schedule coming up -- home against Navy, at Houston, at Temple. If they destroy all three of those teams (current record of 21-2, with both losses coming to Notre Dame) to and there's a slew of 1-loss teams, they'll have a voice at the table.

[Redbird]

He also said that the nightmare scenario for the committee, who seems to value head to head so much is Memphis and Ole Miss winning out. If Ole Miss wins the SEC, how do you deny an undefeated Memphis team at that point who beat Ole Miss soundly. He did, however say that as long as there is a 4 team playoff, he doesn't see anyone from the G5 conferences getting in.

This was a very popular situation to throw out by many in the sports world. It's funny how most of these situations work themselves out (2007 being a very notable exception).

[DrumNFeather]

This was a very popular situation to throw out by many in the sports world. It's funny how most of these situations work themselves out (2007 being a very notable exception).
No doubt.

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[chrisrenrut]

Big changes coming next week. Three, possibly four unbeaten teams go down today. #2,LSU is down 14 in the 4th quarter, and #7 Michigan St, #8 TCU, and #13 Memphis have all lost.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Wow. Go Huskers!

Alabama jumps from 3rd place in sec west to 1st today.

[mUUser]

Suspect Oklahoma State rockets up the standings after it finally gets a signature win.

[LA Ute]

Getting ahead of ourselves post:

So, let's assume Utah finishes 12-1 and that an SEC champ is playoff worthy. How do we claim a spot, and what are the odds? I think we would need 1-2 of the following to happen:

1) Notre Dame loses to Stanford. I'll put that at 50% odds.

2) Clemson loses. South Carolina or UNC in the title game? 15% odds.

3) Baylor and Okie State both lose. They play each other, so one will lose. Baylor still has TCU. OSU still has bedlam. 40%.

4) OSU and Iowa both lose. They likely play each other in the title game, so one will lose. OSU still has MSU and Michigan. Iowa has Minnesota and Nebraska. 40%

If we don't end up in the final four, but end up playing in the Rose Bowl, I will find a way to still be very happy about this season. 😀 What are the odds of Utah playing in the granddaddy of them all?


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[Redbird]

Don't know.

Just thinking about this season in relation to some of our other good years. There's a chance that we finish this season with only one win vs a team that finishes in the top 25. That's obviously not the only metric, but we've had years with 4 top 25 wins before.

Stanford, Michigan, USC, UCLA (maybe), Oregon was 3rd in the "others receiving votes" category.

That's if we win out, and that would likely require USC and Michigan to win out. Oregon would almost certainly need to win out.

[SeattleUte]

I'm convinced that the ACC is the weakling among the P5 conferences. It's never fair that a team that goes undefeated there is presumptively in the Final Four.

[Devildog]

I'm convinced that the ACC is the weakling among the P5 conferences. It's never fair that a team that goes undefeated there is presumptively in the Final Four.

Well once again, no shit. Who have they played beyond Notre Dame and Florida State? That's it. If Utah can win out... the strength of the PAC 12 will prove out.

[Mormon Red Death]

I'm convinced that the ACC is the weakling among the P5 conferences. It's never fair that a team that goes undefeated there is presumptively in the Final Four.
No to mention their two big games were at home

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[SoCalPat]

Well once again, no shit. Who have they played beyond Notre Dame and Florida State? That's it. If Utah can win out... the strength of the PAC 12 will prove out.

A one-loss Stanford could surpass an undefeated Clemson in the rankings. A one-loss Utah team will not.

[Jarid in Cedar]

My guess at the top 12 on Tuesday:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. Oklahoma State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Iowa
10. Utah
11. Florida
12. Oklahoma

I could also see Okie State above Baylor. That actually have a win over someone of note.

[Scratch]

My guess at the top 12 on Tuesday:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. Oklahoma State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Iowa
10. Utah
11. Florida
12. Oklahoma

I could also see Okie State above Baylor. That actually have a win over someone of note.

Yep, I was about to say Okie State above Baylor even before I read your comment at the end. Heck, I think there's a better chance of Okie State at 4 than at 6.

[SoCalPat]

Tuesday predictions

1. Clemson (even)
2. Alabama (+2)
3. Ohio State (even)
4. Notre Dame (+1)
5. Oklahoma State (+9)
6. Baylor (even)
7. Iowa (+2)
8. Stanford (+3)
9. LSU (-7)
10. Utah (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. TCU (-4)
13. Florida (-3)
14. Michigan State (-7)
15. Michigan (+2)
16. Mississippi State (+4)

The first 7 are pretty clear cut. Okie State can't have a gripe about being behind Notre Dame, whose schedule has been significantly tougher thus far this year (Sagarin has ND SOS at 16; OSU at 61). Baylor and Iowa could be flipped, but there's no difference between 6-7 when both teams will need to win out to get into the top 4. The bottom two are also pretty obvious -- Michigan and Mississippi State have the best resume of the 2 loss teams, and while I expect Memphis to take a bit of a tumble, it will fall out of the top 16, with no other G5 quite ready to take its place.

The murky middle is where the most debate will take place -- unless the committee does something really funky with its top 4. LSU and Utah are virtual mirror images of one another in Sagarin. Oklahoma is No. 1 in Sagarin's Predictor. How do you rate Florida's near-loss to Vandy? Compared to how Michigan State beat Michigan, the Gators ran up the score. Stanford is still Stanford, and it will receive a nice test Saturday against an Oregon team that seems to have found its stride. How badly do you ding TCU? Does it matter now that it still has Baylor and Oklahoma on the schedule, nearly lost to Texas Tech and let Iowa State hang around for a half.

Let's say Stanford/Utah are back-to-back this week (lets say 8-9) like they were last week (11-12). Let's also say Stanford squeaks by Oregon by only 3-7 points, in Palo Alto. Do you move Utah ahead of Stanford if it beats Arizona convincingly?

[mUUser]

If I'm voting, I've got Clemson, Okie, Iowa and Bama. ND, Baylor, The OSU, and Stanford on deck.


I still contend Utah needs a ton of help. If Stanford loses before the P12 championship, we're toast.

[SoCalPat]

If I'm voting, I've got Clemson, Okie, Iowa and Bama. ND, Baylor, The OSU, and Stanford on deck.


I still contend Utah needs a ton of help. If Stanford loses before the P12 championship, we're toast.

The only one-loss team Utah cannot beat out for the fourth spot is Alabama. We will beat out any one-loss conference champ from the ACC, Big 12 or Big 10. The catch there is, is that right now it seems highly unlikely that the ACC or Big 10 will produce a 1-loss champion. Our non-conference SOS will trump that of any Big 12 one-loss champ.

Alabama and Arkansas did everyone a favor by beating LSU and Ole Miss. The odds of two SEC teams getting into the playoff are virtually nil. As it should be.

We are massive Stanford fans in three weeks. But I cannot help but notice that Notre Dame has a game at Boston College the week before. Lots of ghosts in that game. BC's defense is damn salty. If it can find a way to score 17 points, it might win outright. But we need Notre Dame to lose. If it doesn't, we'll need to win the style points battle convincingly when we play Stanford.

[SoCalPat]

You have more faith in the committee's lack of bias than I do. I could see them taking an 11-1 Oklahoma or a 12-1 osu over a 12-1 Utah.

Right on Oklahoma, wrong on Ohio State. OU has been killing fools and actually has the league's best non-conference win (at Tennessee). I would be hanging my hat on the hopes that the committee would view their loss to Texas as unacceptable.

1-loss Ohio State easily loses out to 1-loss Utah. Quite likely, OSU's one loss would come to Iowa, which would be Top 4 and undefeated. The Big 10 is not a two-bid league. Utah would have the stronger SOS and better wins, as well as a league title. It might result in a matchup in the Rose Bowl, but we wouldn't finish 5 to OSU's 4 under that scenario in a million years.

[SoCalPat]

Yes, but what about a big10 champion osu who's loss comes from msu or Michigan?

Utah is also not faring too well in the computers relative to some other one loss teams. I know the committee is not supposed to use certain rankings, but that's like telling a tv jury to disregard some great one liner from the prosecution.

All that said, I do think our chances are very good if we win out.

If OSU loses to Michigan State, it will certainly not even qualify for the Big 10 title game, as both would be one-loss teams and MSU holds the tiebreaker.

Michigan beating OSU could result in the Big 10 getting shut out altogether. Even if it beats Iowa the following week, Michigan wouldn't get in ahead of a one-loss Utah.

Our favorite 3 teams outside of Utah over the coming weeks are Stanford, Michigan and ... wait for it ... North Carolina.

[Jarid in Cedar]

If we win out the regular season, our floor is the Fiesta Bowl, and the ceiling is the CFP.

If we lose to a 11-1 Stanford, they likely go the the CFP, and we go to the Rose. If for some asinine reason the Trees are denied the playoff, they will get the Rose, but we will be ranked high enough that we will be placed in a NY6 game, most likely in Phoenix.

If we win out and beat Stanford, I agree with SCP, it would take some unfortunate turns of luck for us to miss out on the playoffs. There are too many built in losses for the teams ahead of us due to h2h play.

[DrumNFeather]

If we win out the regular season, our floor is the Fiesta Bowl, and the ceiling is the CFP.

If we lose to a 11-1 Stanford, they likely go the the CFP, and we go to the Rose. If for some asinine reason the Trees are denied the playoff, they will get the Rose, but we will be ranked high enough that we will be placed in a NY6 game, most likely in Phoenix.

If we win out and beat Stanford, I agree with SCP, it would take some unfortunate turns of luck for us to miss out on the playoffs. There are too many built in losses for the teams ahead of us due to h2h play.

And, we could likely face Iowa, which I think would be a pretty decent match up for us.

[Redbird]

Utah 10th.

Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St, Notre Dame are the top 4.

Iowa, Baylor, Stanford, Ok State, and LSU finish out the top 10.

[Redbird]

If Utah finishes the regular season 11-1, they will be at the absolute worst 7th going into the P12CG, but that's assuming Ohio St, Iowa, Clemson, Alabama, Stanford, and one of Baylor/Ok State wins out going into the first weekend of December.

[mUUser]

I don't get the love for tOSU right now. No top 25 wins, which means no top 25 games. No better than Baylor's schedule. How you could leave OkieSt or Iowa out in favor of tOSU is a mystery.

[mUUser]

I think you're right but 1-3 should be irrelevant. I get 4-5 but don't think they belong till 4-5 translates to the field. I happen to believe they will prove to be best team in the country once they get their act together. But in week 10, they haven't earned it.

[SoCalPat]

I don't get the love for tOSU right now. No top 25 wins, which means no top 25 games. No better than Baylor's schedule. How you could leave OkieSt or Iowa out in favor of tOSU is a mystery.

If Iowa wins out, it gets in. That OSU is in ahead of the Hawkeyes now is irrelevant.

[SeattleUte]

I heard Petros Papadakis interviewed on KJR Seattle last night and he'd just gotten off the phone with the Ute coaches. He said that Whittingham said that there are 12 seniors who run essentially everything on this Ute team. It occurred to me that great coaching is like great parenting--the objective is to make yourself irrelevant. Papadakis said the Utes expect every game to be close, because they run out the clock on offense and try to control the game defensively. Papadakis also said that Utah is the most balanced team in the nation. There's nothing it doesn't do well, and some things like special teams and defense it does extremely well. He said one thing that surprised me--Utah is also the most racially balanced team in the nation; "it has one-third blacks, one-third Polynesians, and one-third whites." It wasn't surprising because it's not true, but because he said it. Is it okay to say that? (I don't think he thinks it matters; he was joking.)

[mUUser]

The order is easy at first:

1) An unbeaten P5 team (Clemson, Iowa, OSU, OkieSt, Baylor)
2) One loss SEC champ (Bama, Florida, LSU)

Then things get a little less clear:

3) One loss Pac-12 champ (Stanford, Utah)
4) One loss Big10 champ (Iowa, OSU, MSU)
5) One loss independent (ND)
6) One loss Big12 team (could be Baylor, OkieSt, Oklahoma, TCU)
7) One loss ACC champ (Clemson, UNC)

The 3-6 order is still pretty fuzzy. Who knows what they would do to sort that out?

Yes, the first 2 are easy. In fact, if ND went undefeated it could be placed in order #1 as well.

I would think 3-7 looks like this, depending on a truckload of factors, of course.

3. B10 champ 1 loss
4. P12 champ 1 loss
5. ACC champ 1 loss
6-7. ND or B12 team 1 loss.

The only reason I put ND and the B12 at the bottom is because they play one fewer game. I think that hurts them overall in the eyes of many, when combined with a loss.

[LA Ute]

Three Playoff top 25 teams that could make Ohio State-like leaps (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/rankings/2015/11/10/college-football-playoff-dark-horses-utah-oklahoma-north-carolina/75551836/)
Guess who's one of them?

[Redbird]

He said one thing that surprised me--Utah is also the most racially balanced team in the nation; "it has one-third blacks, one-third Polynesians, and one-third whites." It wasn't surprising because it's not true, but because he said it. Is it okay to say that? (I don't think he thinks it matters; he was joking.)

I trust the ratio is correct, but I doubt the existence of a database that collects this information on CFB rosters, and I definitely doubt he took the time to check the ethnicity of even every P5 school's roster.

[LA Ute]

He said one thing that surprised me--Utah is also the most racially balanced team in the nation; "it has one-third blacks, one-third Polynesians, and one-third whites." It wasn't surprising because it's not true, but because he said it. Is it okay to say that? (I don't think he thinks it matters; he was joking.)

That's kind of the way Petros rolls. I am sure he didn't base it on anything other than what he had heard.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Hasn't Kyle bragged about this ratio for years? He says that it's so important to him that it even carries over to how he fills out his coaching staff.


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[DrumNFeather]

Hasn't Kyle bragged about this ratio for years? He says that it's so important to him that it even carries over to how he fills out his coaching staff.


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I'm almost positive he mentioned this before the season when he went on the Jim Rome show.

[concerned]

Hasn't Kyle bragged about this ratio for years? He says that it's so important to him that it even carries over to how he fills out his coaching staff.


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Yes. He says it all the time. It's part of his recruiting pitch.

[OrangeUte]

Kyle has said this before. I have no idea how true it is, but from what i see on the field, it is probably pretty close to being accurate.

[mUUser]

Did anyone else catch Joel Klatt's CFP theory on The Herd?

http://www.foxsports.com/watch/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd/video/you-need-to-hear-this-college-football-conspiracy-theory-the-herd-111115

[Mormon Red Death]

For shits and giggles... what if utah won out, usc looses at Oregon, Stanford beats cal and notre Dame. Bama loses the iron bowl ole miss wins out (including the sec champ). Tcu beats Oklahoma and Baylor looses to Texas. OK st looses to Baylor and Oklahoma (every big 12 team has 2 losses). Ohio st, Clemson win out.
That leaves us with:
Ohio st, Clemson 1 &2
Iowa with one loss. Pac 12 champ with 2 losses. Big 12 champ with 2 losses, sec champ with 3 losses, Bama with two losses and not the sec champ. Who gets the two spots?

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[DrumNFeather]

Utes drop to #13 in the latest rankings...that's actually not that bad, IMO.

Stanford sitting at #11, and Oregon and USC both enter the back half of the rankings at #23 and #24 respectively.

So, we're probably not positioned for the playoff, though half the top 10 did lose last week, but you still have Stanford sitting out there that gets Notre Dame and several teams ahead of us could lose, so we could still be positioned for a NY6 Bowl game should we win out.

Now, if USC ends up winning the South and we are 10-2, it would be interesting to see if we got selected depending on who else loses down the stretch.

[SoCalPat]

Utes drop to #13 in the latest rankings...that's actually not that bad, IMO.

Stanford sitting at #11, and Oregon and USC both enter the back half of the rankings at #23 and #24 respectively.

So, we're probably not positioned for the playoff, though half the top 10 did lose last week, but you still have Stanford sitting out there that gets Notre Dame and several teams ahead of us could lose, so we could still be positioned for a NY6 Bowl game should we win out.

Now, if USC ends up winning the South and we are 10-2, it would be interesting to see if we got selected depending on who else loses down the stretch.

If we win out and USC claims the South, we're huge USC fans in the title game. USC can have the Rose, Utah would most likely get the Fiesta, almost certainly against Notre Dame. I'll take that. A win in the Fiesta would finish us at 11-2 and give us a top 8 finish in the polls, minimum. Although it's highly unlikely the Pac-12 gets a single team in the playoff, it's almost a lock to have two NY6 teams. Quite frankly, our best way into a NY6 bowl is to NOT win the South, and have USC be the league champion.

Although a league can have three reps in the CFP/NY6, I suspect the breakdown would go like this, based on the slotting that has to take place:

Big 10: CFP (champion), Rose (No. 2)
ACC: CFP (Clemson), Peach (No. 2 -- provided it's a 1-loss FSU. If UNC is ACC champ, this is also in play).
Big 12: CFP (undefeated Okie State or 1-loss Oklahoma), Sugar (No. 2).
Pac 12: Rose (champion), Fiesta (No. 2). We lose our second spot if UNC beats Clemson in the ACC title game.
SEC: CFP (Alabama), Sugar (No. 2)
Notre Dame: Fiesta
G5, right now, Navy is highest-rated G5: Peach

The matchups would be as such (some projecting here):

Rose: USC vs. Iowa
Sugar: Florida vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta: Utah vs. Notre Dame
Peach: Navy vs. Florida State
Semifinal No. 1 (Orange Bowl): Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Semifinal No. 2 (Cotton Bowl): Alabama vs. Ohio State

One more thing to consider: Navy and Notre Dame are almost certainly not going to be paired up in any NY6 game, as they play each other in the regular season. That's what makes Notre Dame a near-lock for the Fiesta, as it cannot play in the Rose or Sugar bowls. Could you have a Utah-Navy Fiesta bowl? I doubt the Fiesta would want it's Pac-12 rep facing a G5 opponent for the second year in a row. I would think they have some pull in determining that matchup. Utah-Navy would fall under the "non-compelling matchup" clause that exists for the CFP in determining the NY6 games, as would pairing up Notre Dame and Florida State in the Peach, a game that was played last year and would feature ND's former QB starting for the other team (although I suppose that would make for a compelling matchup in its own right).

Also, Stanford is behind the 8-ball for any NY6 game save the Rose. It doesn't travel well, and if the Fiesta features Notre Dame, they're not going to schedule that game again for the second time in a month.

[LA Ute]

http://i623.photobucket.com/albums/tt318/lowellbrown/CUGfW1vWEAE0V3s_zpsjml5odmi.png (http://s623.photobucket.com/user/lowellbrown/media/CUGfW1vWEAE0V3s_zpsjml5odmi.png.html)

[SeattleUte]

Goes without saying that we would pull for USC over Stanford. Don't even need the explanation.

I don't understand this post. I'm as confident that Oregon will beat USC as is possible about such things. I also believe, though I'm less sure, that UCLA will beat USC. The Utes just need to take care of their own business the next two weeks and we'll be playing in the Pac 12 title game.

[mUUser]

I don't understand this post.......


He hates Stanford and its world-class education with the fire of a thousand suns. Yet has a tender spot for Boylen. Odd choices, man.

[NorthwestUteFan]

He hates Stanford and its world-class education with the fire of a thousand suns. Yet has a tender spot for Boylen. Odd choices, man.

Dookies gonna Dook.

[Diehard Ute]

This is true. I'm not rational about hardly anything.

But I don't see how I'm the crazy one here.

I would choose USC over Stanford in the Pac-12 title game if it came to that. Even the portion of Ute fans who get weak-kneed over Stanford's amazing academics should be able to see what is better for Utah.

Rocker genuinely believes that Boylen is an imbecile, U-ute - despite evidence to the contrary - believes it would be impossible for Boylen to win games with any set of players under any set of circumstances, and Seattle somehow seems to hate Boylen even more than he hates Dalin Oaks. But I'm the one who's Dooking!

Coaches' early careers hang on a thread. Boylen was runner up for Wilcox and Davies. If he lands one of those guys, he might still be successfully coaching in SLC. On the other hand, K barely beat out others for Loveridge. If he missed on Jordan, he might be gone already with people on this board questioning everything from his appearance to his intelligence to his integrity. In the universe of infinite parallel dimensions, surely there are some few in which Boylen is a successful head coach.

I'm very glad we have K. I was excited about that hire from the start, even if he wasn't my first choice.

If you can't see Boylen's inherent reasons for being a bad head coach that's on you.

Of course the fact that Boylen was the fallback when K didn't take the job, but K wasn't your first choice, says a lot


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[LA Ute]

I am not going to attack Boylen's character. It's enough for me that Utah basketball became unwatchable while he was head coach. He insisted on running an NBA-style offense at the college level. In other words, give the ball to your best player and clear out a side for him. There was no attention paid to fundamentals that I could see. There seemed to be very little discipline. Players would disobey directions from the bench, yet remain in the game. Marshall Henderson's off-court antics became legendary and yet he remained a starter on the team, apparently paying no price. He got blown out on his home floor by BYU. I don't care how good the recruits are, you're not going to succeed in Division I with that approach to coaching. (The screaming into the microphone during games and the smoke machine were simply salt on the wound.)


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[SoCalPat]

I don't understand this post. I'm as confident that Oregon will beat USC as is possible about such things. I also believe, though I'm less sure, that UCLA will beat USC. The Utes just need to take care of their own business the next two weeks and we'll be playing in the Pac 12 title game.

If we play in the Pac-12 title game, we'd better f------g win it. If we don't, we go to the Alamo Bowl. The in-between sweet spot is for USC to win the South, beat the North champ, Utah finishes 10-2 and gets a Fiesta Bowl invite to play Notre Dame. I am not losing sleep if we win out and lose the South on a tiebreaker. Good things still await.

[Diehard Ute]

I'm talking about hiring K when we fired Boylen. K was nobody's first choice except Chris Hill's. I wanted Tony Bennett or Wojo (Dookie). Others wanted Randy Bennett, which I thought was a really dumb idea.

Yeah. That makes it all the more funny to me. Hill had it right in the beginning. If he'd gotten his guy the first time we wouldn't be having this discussion.


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[U-Ute]

U-ute - despite evidence to the contrary - believes it would be impossible for Boylen to win games with any set of players under any set of circumstances

My bad. I guess we only lost to power houses such as Southwest Baptist. I can't imagine why they don't have an entry on sports-reference.com. Must be an oversight.

[concerned]

I'm talking about hiring K when we fired Boylen. K was nobody's first choice except Chris Hill's. I wanted Tony Bennett or Wojo (Dookie). Others wanted Randy Bennett, which I thought was a really dumb idea.

Tony Bennett? I would have preferred Mel Torme

[U-Ute]

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/11/25/942ea4d77c848f334eb8b3d9777be49c.jpg

[DrumNFeather]

Utes drop one spot to #24.

Top 10:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. MSU
6. Oho St.
7. Stanford
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida St.
10. North Carolina

Notable:

16. Oregon
18. Florida
20. USC

It seems evident that UNC cannot get in, even with a win over Clemson. Perhaps they'd jump up into the top 6, but It's hard for me to think they'd move all the way up. I'm also not sure Oregon can make it into a NY6 bowl. Is there enough movement available in front of them? They could jump UNC if UNC loses, but it seems that the most likely scenario where two Pac 12 teams get into a NY6 bowl is USC beating Stanford.

[Redbird]

Looks like some combo of Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Michigan St. Hard not to think Alabama is the favorite, but it will depend on seeding. Too bad Clemson won; otherwise, Stanford probably would've snuck into the CFP. My guess is Alabama/OU and Clemson/Sparty.

[Scratch]

I think MSU jumps OU, but they don't want to.

What they should do is identify team #1 and team #2, and then let team 1 choose which of the remaining 2 teams in plays in round 1.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

I think MSU jumps OU, but they don't want to.

What they should do is identify team #1 and team #2, and then let team 1 choose which of the remaining 2 teams in plays in round 1.

That's exactly what happened.

1)Clemson vs. 4)Oklahoma
2)Alabama vs. 3)Michigan State

Stanford jumps to #5 as the first loser.


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[concerned]

More evidence that you need a championship game. If Oklahoma had been number 4, may have gotten booted altogether. Teams from the big 12 may need to be ranked 3 or higher to avoid getting booted

[NorthwestUteFan]

FWIW, Chokelahoma has the #1 RPI. I think there is a good chance they will blow through Clemson. Beyond that I am not particularly interested on the playoffs


WhittinghamBall is most similar to Michigan State. Sparty is more refined and has better talent right now, but the similarities are astonishing.

So we get Stanford vs Iowa in the Rose, most likely. That is a fun matchup because Iowa has a very good rush defense, plus an explosive offense. And Stanford is playing like the best team in the nation right now.

Will Oregon get a good bowl matchup? They beat USC and Stanford. It might be fun to see a rematch of Oregon vs Ohio State.

Utah playing the Zoo in Vegas? Yawn. Boring matchup. We play them all the stinking time. I will watch the Running Utes play Duke, and flip to the Veg during timeouts. Zero interest in this game outside the Mtn West. Utah By 5.

[SoCalPat]

I think MSU jumps OU, but they don't want to.

What they should do is identify team #1 and team #2, and then let team 1 choose which of the remaining 2 teams in plays in round 1.

My understanding is that the No. 1 seed chooses the venue. Letting teams choose who they play is horrible precedent, and allows for ridiculous second-guessing if the team they want to play ends up winning. No coach would ever want a part of that decision.

[SoCalPat]

This year was so neat and clean with the Top 4, it's the perfect year for a movement to 6 teams to take place. College football's postseason has never been neat and clean. It thrives on debate, discussion and controversy, none of which were in place this year. There's also little reward for finishing No. 1 vs. finishing No. 4.

I've always believed 6 is a perfect number. Top 2 get byes, Nos. 3-4 host opening round games on-campus. The bowls are untouched, fans get to experience a playoff without draining their bank accounts and 5-6 really have to prove themselves by beating three top 6 teams in successive weeks. You'll get debate on both seeding and No 6 vs. 7-8. Make it happen, CFP.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I'll take Clemson over MSU in the championship. The death of Clemsoning. Will Wazzu ever overcome Couging it?

[Applejack]

I'll take Clemson over MSU in the championship. The death of Clemsoning. Will Wazzu ever overcome Couging it?

I'll take the opposite: Alabamer over OU.

[sancho]

I'll take the opposite: Alabamer over OU.

I'm with AJ here. I don't believe in Clemson or MSU.

[sancho]

Will Wazzu ever overcome Couging it?

We should hope not. That's what makes them interesting.