Season ending records prediction

[The Thrill]

So I've been posting this on UF.N for the past couple months but moving it over here.
Essentially I'm using all of the computer rankings and score predictors to calculate a consensus of computer rankings.
Then I'm applying their predictors to the remaining games and voila, we have a predicted record list.

Games that are a spread difference of less than 5 I call a swing game, could go either way.

Below are the updated predicted final standings for the Pac12 and in state schools.

For Utah, here are their remaining games with spread prediction

Predicted wins : (Oregon -7)
Predicted swing win : (Arizona State -1)
Predicted loss : (Washington +12, Colorado +8.5)

As you can see, the machine predicts Utah and Colorado to both be 9-2 heading into Boulder week 12. A game for the championship.
Maybe Utah can repay the favor Colorado handed in Utah's first year in the Pac12 when they beat Utah and stole the south from them.




NORTH

Remaining Games


WASHINGTON
(12-0)
Utah -12, California -16.5, USC -11, Arizona State -20, Washington State -6.5


STANFORD
(9-3)
Arizona -11, Oregon State -19, Oregon -6, California -6.5, Rice -33


WASHINGTON STATE
(8-4)
Oregon St -15, Arizona -17, California -12, Colorado +3.5, Washington +6.5


CALIFORNIA
(4-8)
USC +13, Washington +16.5, Washington St +12, Stanford +6.5, UCLA +4


OREGON
(4-8)
Arizona St -1.5, USC +12.5, Stanford +6, Utah +7, Oregon St -5.5


OREGON STATE
(2-10)
Washington St -15, Stanford -19, UCLA -17, Arizona Pkm, Oregon +5.5


SOUTH




COLORADO
(10-2)
UCLA -6.5, Arizona -13, Washington St -3.5, Utah -8.5


UTAH
(9-3)
Washington +12, Arizona St -1, Oregon -7, Colorado +8.5


USC
(8-4)
California -13, Oregon -12.5, Washington +11, UCLA -1.5, Notre Dame -5.5


ARIZONA STATE
(6-6)
Oregon +1.5, Utah +1, Washington +20, Arizona -3.5


UCLA
(5-7)
Colorado +6.5, Oregon St -17, USC +1.5, California -4


ARIZONA
(3-9)
Stanford +11, Washington St +17, Colorado +13, Oregon St Pkm, ASU +3.5


IN STATE SCHOOLS




Utah
(9-3)
Washington +12, Arizona St -1, Oregon -7, Colorado +8.5


BYU
(8-4)
Cincinnati -11, Southern Utah -32.5, UMass -27, Utah St -14.5


Utah State
(6-6)
San Diego St +4.5, Wyoming -1.5, New Mexico -7, Nevada -8.5, BYU +14.5

[The Thrill]

Week 9 early predicted scores:

USC 41 California 28
Washington 34 Utah 23
Oregon 40 Arizona St 38
Washington St 38 Oregon St 23
Stanford 31 Arizona 20

[Utah]

I like that your computers are finally giving Utah a little more respect. Still disappointed that Colorado is so highly ranked. They struggled vs a bad Stanford team on the road. I guess you could say the same for Utah, but Utah put up 52 points on UCLA, showing that they can play an offensive game. Colorado struggled again vs a very good defense.

I still feel good about Utah beating Colorado. Utah can score and keep up with a team that likes to score. Colorado can't score on a good defense. That seems good for us.

[The Thrill]

Everything goes into play with this. Michigan dominating continues to help Colorado.

[Utah]

This is what I don't like about SOS models. Colorado gets a bump because they got their butts kicked by Michigan. If you get worked over by a great team, you get the benefit of the stats. Whereas, if you beat that team, you lose SOS. It's very flawed.

For example, Colorado jumped out to a 14-0 lead with over 11 mins left in the first quarter. Michigan outscored Colorado by a score of 45-14 the remaining 45+ mins.

There is no reason for Colorado to get any help from that game. Michigan absolutely dump trucked Colorado, yet, everyone acts like that game somehow shows that Colorado is a threat to be reckoned with.

Same with USC and Stanford vs Colorado. USC completely destroyed Colorado in every aspect of the game, except for TO's. USC was -3 in TO's and still won. Stanford was -4 in TO's...and only lost 10-5. Colorado is the definition of a paper tiger. Yet, the computers LOVE them.

Makes no sense. So, you are telling me that had Utah played and gotten destroyed by Alabama or Ohio State or Michigan, we'd be favored to beat Colorado?

Sure, we haven't played anyone as tough as Michigan, but we didn't lose to USC either. We did lose to Cal, but I'm definitely ok writing that loss off to injuries. It took us 1/2 the game to get over JJ being out. Lowell went down, Porter went down, etc. Colorado has played 2 for sure bowl teams and is 0-2 in both games, getting completely worked over. Utah has played two for sure bowl teams and is 2-0 vs them.

Anyways, I do love these, it's just time for my weekly rant about all this.

[The Thrill]

I guess that's why wins and losses are the ultimate rankings. Since only 11 matches per school happen and 116 teams are not then this is the best model to compare unmatched opponents. Now with all that said the numbers produced by the computers are only a start, oddsmakers take this information and apply real world applications to it. Injuries, recent results and momentum. Colorado is losing some stream and Utah is gaining momentum, I expect 3-4 points shaved off computer predictions by game time if all holds form.

What you said about SOS is spot on. A higher SOS just means you lost to good teams, for if you beat them your SOS suffers. It's really just a baseline for one of the matrices applied to the overall score. Nothing more. I'm glad you enjoy the, I plan on doing the same for basketball.

[Utah]

Thanks again. I love this type of stuff. The debate/discussion is what makes college football so fun...

And the upsets.

[Applejack]

I guess that's why wins and losses are the ultimate rankings. Since only 11 matches per school happen and 116 teams are not then this is the best model to compare unmatched opponents. Now with all that said the numbers produced by the computers are only a start, oddsmakers take this information and apply real world applications to it. Injuries, recent results and momentum. Colorado is losing some stream and Utah is gaining momentum, I expect 3-4 points shaved off computer predictions by game time if all holds form.

What you said about SOS is spot on. A higher SOS just means you lost to good teams, for if you beat them your SOS suffers. It's really just a baseline for one of the matrices applied to the overall score. Nothing more. I'm glad you enjoy the, I plan on doing the same for basketball.

If I learned anything in my math classes (or maths for our British posters), it is that odds like these can't predict a single game (upsets, TOs, bad bounces, etc), but they do a pretty good job at predicting overall season results. So that gives me hope to win this Saturday in spite of oddsmakers telling me I'm crazy, but little hope for running the table even if we do win Saturday.

[The Thrill]

If we win on Sat, I will have more than a little hope of running the table.

If Utah wins the next 4 I will have the same hope

[The Thrill]

NORTH

Remaining Games


WASHINGTON
(12-0)
California -17, USC -11, Arizona State -21, Washington State -7.5


STANFORD
(9-3)
Oregon State -22, Oregon -6.5, California -9, Rice -37.5


WASHINGTON STATE
(8-4)
Arizona -18, California -12, Colorado +1.5, Washington +7.5


CALIFORNIA
(4-8)
Washington +17, Washington St +12, Stanford +9, UCLA +3


OREGON
(4-8)
USC +10.5, Stanford +6.5, Utah +7, Oregon St -8


OREGON STATE
(3-10)
Stanford -22, UCLA -15.5, Arizona -1, Oregon +8


SOUTH




COLORADO
(10-2)
UCLA -6, Arizona -12, Washington St -1.5, Utah -3.5


UTAH
(9-3)
Arizona St -4, Oregon -7, Colorado +3.5


USC
(8-4)
Oregon -10.5, Washington +11, UCLA -3, Notre Dame -7


ARIZONA STATE
(6-6)
Utah +4, Washington +21, Arizona -4.5


UCLA
(5-7)
Colorado +6, Oregon St -15.5, USC +3, California -3


ARIZONA
(2-10)
Washington St +18, Colorado +12, Oregon St +1, ASU +4.5


IN STATE SCHOOLS




Utah
(9-3)
Arizona St -4, Oregon -7, Colorado +3.5


BYU
(8-4)
Cincinnati -9.5, Southern Utah -42.5, UMass -27, Utah St -16


Utah State
(6-6)
Wyoming -4.5, New Mexico -4, Nevada -4.5, BYU

[The Thrill]

Week 10 early score predictions

Colorado 30 UCLA 24
USC 40 Oregon 30
Washington St 40 Arizona 21
Washington 45 California 28
Stanford 35 Oregon St 13

[The Thrill]

Week 9 early predicted scores:

USC 41 California 28
Washington 34 Utah 23
Oregon 40 Arizona St 38
Washington St 38 Oregon St 23
Stanford 31 Arizona 20

USC 45 California 24
Washington 31 Utah 24
Oregon 54 Arizona St 35
Washington St 35 Oregon St 31
Stanford 34 Arizona 10

I wasn't too far off.

[The Thrill]

NORTH

Remaining Games


WASHINGTON
(12-0)
USC -11.5, Arizona State -23, Washington State -5


STANFORD
(9-3)
Oregon -7, California -7.5, Rice -38.5


WASHINGTON STATE
(8-4)
California -17, Colorado +3.5, Washington +5


CALIFORNIA
(4-8)
Washington St +17, Stanford +7.5, UCLA +4


OREGON
(4-8)
Stanford +7, Utah +8, Oregon St -2.5


OREGON STATE
(3-10)
UCLA -13, Arizona -7, Oregon +2.5


SOUTH




COLORADO
(10-2)
Arizona -22, Washington St -3.5, Utah -11.5


UTAH
(9-3)
Arizona St -2.5, Oregon -8, Colorado +11.5


USC
(8-4)
Washington +11.5, UCLA -4.5, Notre Dame -7.5


ARIZONA STATE
(6-6)
Utah +2.5, Washington +23, Arizona -8


UCLA
(5-7)
Oregon St -13, USC +4.5, California -4


ARIZONA
(2-10)
Colorado +22, Oregon St +7, ASU +8


IN STATE SCHOOLS




Utah
(9-3)
Arizona St -2.5, Oregon -8, Colorado +11.5


BYU
(8-4)
Southern Utah -43.5, UMass -27, Utah St -18.5


Utah State
(5-7)
New Mexico -2.5, Nevada -6, BYU +18.5

[The Thrill]

Week 10 early score predictions

Colorado 30 UCLA 24
USC 40 Oregon 30
Washington St 40 Arizona 21
Washington 45 California 28
Stanford 35 Oregon St 13

Colorado 20 UCLA 10
USC 45 Oregon 20
Washington St 69 Arizona 7
Washington 66 California 27
Stanford 26 Oregon St 15

[The Thrill]

Week 11 early predictions

Utah 32 Arizona St 30
UCLA 33 Oregon St 21
Washington 36 USC 24
Colorado 39 Arizona 16
Stanford 33 Oregon 26
Washington State 47 California 29