Utah vs BYU - The Gap Widens

[Utah]

I thought I'd start this up after Jake Scott released his top 60 in 60 list. I'm going to start with the hypothetical "BYU shut down it's program, every single BYU player is trying to join the Utes and this is the final two deep".

I'll give in depth breakdowns of my decisions in the following months, but the list:

QB: Troy Williams, Tyler Huntley
RB: Shyne/Moss/Devontae Henry Cole
FB: Obsolete
X: Singleton, Trinnaman or Tyquez Hampton
Z: Siaosi Wilson, Samson Nacua
Slot: Simpkins, Dana
T: Barton, Capra, Peck
G: Agasiva, Uhatafe, Paulo
C: Falemaka, Koroma
TE: Fakailoatonga, Handley, Falemaka

So, on offense, you have Trinnaman and Koroma who would make the two deep, and even both of those would be fighting to make the two deep and after fall camp, it wouldn't surprise me if Hampton or Thompson bumped Trinnaman off that list and if Umana, Dixon or Grant bumped Koroma off that list.

Now, onto the defense:

DE: Anae, Hamilton/Tupai
DT: Mokofisi/Penisini
DT: Lotulelei/Fotu
DE: Fitts, Hart/Repp
LB: Luafatasaga/Barton
LB: Warner/Tauteoli
CB: Troy Smith/Tyreke Lewis
CB: Terell Burgess/Jaylon Johnson
NB: Julian Blackmon/Guidry
S: Chase Hansen/Blair
S: Ballard/Afia

Defensively, the only Cougar that would even see the field is Fred Warner. He is good, but he isn't near as good as Luafatasaga.

So, out of 44+ players, the only players with any hope of seeing the field are Fred Warner (and he would start, that's a given), Koroma (and that might not be true come this fall) and Trinnaman (but, again, he'd have to fight it out with a ton of players we have).

I did leave off Mangum, but did so for a reason. Vs P5 schools, look at his stats:

19/36, 53%, 193 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT passing.
6 rushes, -3 yards, 0 TD's rushing.

Hardly lighting the world up. In fact, vs P%, he sucks. When Hill and Wilson look better than you and can run, you aren't that good.

So, he wouldn't start over Troy Williams, especially a healthy Troy Williams.

The question becomes, do you take Mangum or Huntley. And that is a simple answer: Huntley. Throwing wise, he can't be much worse than Travis Wilson, Taysom Hill, or Tanner Mangum. But, what he can do with his legs is fantastic. If he can cut down on his mental mistakes and TO's, he might push Troy for the starting job this fall.

This doesn't mean that Mangum sucks (although he isn't that good), but it does mean that Utah is jut better.

This game won't be close.

Last year, we had 6 TO's. One fumble forced by Kai Nacua and another forced by Harvey Langi. Those two are in the NFL now. BYU does not have two players anywhere near that level at those positions. Ah You may develop into a player at that level, but in his third college football game? Forgettaboutit.

We had two INT's thrown by Troy Williams. They were terrible throws. BUT, in JC both those throws are TD's. Those are inexperience throws. And Troy Williams wasn't making those throws by the end of the year. They aren't happening again.

The third INT was a terrible call by the refs. The was a helmet to helmet hit and it should have negated the INT and Utah should have received the ball back. The refs 100% got that call wrong. That won't happen again (well, the targeting of Utah players will happen again, but the odds of such a terrible, blatantly wrong call is slim to none).

Even with all that, BYU still lost. They don't have the players they had last year. Utah has more players than they had last year. The only spot where Utah takes a step back compared to where they were vs BYU last year is LT with Garrett Bolles.

I get that they lost Marcus Williams, but Chase Hansen is a baller and Ballard is very good as well. Hansen may be better than Williams and Ballard isn't as good, but he isn't far behind.

[Utah]

This game won't be close.

Last year, we had 6 TO's. One fumble forced by Kai Nacua and another forced by Harvey Langi. Those two are in the NFL now. BYU does not have two players anywhere near that level at those positions. Ah You may develop into a player at that level, but in his third college football game? Forgettaboutit.

We had two INT's thrown by Troy Williams. They were terrible throws. BUT, in JC both those throws are TD's. Those are inexperience throws. And Troy Williams wasn't making those throws by the end of the year. They aren't happening again.

The third INT was a terrible call by the refs. The was a helmet to helmet hit and it should have negated the INT and Utah should have received the ball back. The refs 100% got that call wrong. That won't happen again (well, the targeting of Utah players will happen again, but the odds of such a terrible, blatantly wrong call is slim to none).

Even with all that, BYU still lost. They don't have the players they had last year. Utah has more players than they had last year. The only spot where Utah takes a step back compared to where they were vs BYU last year is LT with Garrett Bolles.

I get that they lost Marcus Williams, but Chase Hansen is a baller and Ballard is very good as well. Hansen may be better than Williams and Ballard isn't as good, but he isn't far behind.

[Utah]

Compared to last year:

Utah:

QB: Better
RB: Better. Now, this sounds weird, but Joe Williams was TERRIBLE in this game. Shyne/Moss/DHC will be better than Williams was in that game
WR: Better
OL: Worse
TE: Better

DL: Wash.
LB: Better
CB: Worse
S: Wash

K: Who knows. Probably worse
P: Better

5 betters, 2 Washes, 3 Worse.

BYU:

QB: Wash, but I'm not sold on this. I'd vote worse. What kept BYU in the game last year was Hill's two big runs, and Mangum can't do those.
RB: Worse
WR: Worse
OL: Better
TE: Better

DL: Worse
LB: Better
CB: Better
S: Worse

P: Worse
K: Wash

4 Betters, 2 Washes, 5 Worse.

We've taken significant steps forward in areas we match up against them. Specifically at QB, RB and WR. The areas we aren't as good (OL and CB) are areas where they are weaker than they were last year.

If we have any sort of throw game and when Mangum throws a pick or 4, this game will get ugly.

It may not be Las Vegas Bowl ugly, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is 54-10 ugly, where it is close at halftime and then BYU makes some mistakes and Troy and Troy bury this team.

[U-Ute]

Normally I'd pass this type of post off as homerism, but I have to admit that you make a compelling case.

Mangum is the only one I might disagree on. I don't think we've had a chance to see the real Mangum yet. The kid has an NFL arm.

[Scratch]

The kid has an NFL arm.

And, to date, a high school ability to read defenses. He certainly has the arm to be elite, whether or not he can learn to read a defense will be the difference between being an NFL draft pick and just a guy who throws for a lot of yards and a lot of INTs.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Jake Heaps had a fantastic arm and was the #1 QB in the Elite 11 competition.

That still didn't translate to CFB, because he also retained his HS-level ability to read the Defense.

[Utah]

Kids like Heaps need to go to schools like USC where the superior talent around them hides their deficiencies. They just get exposed at lesser schools.

[sancho]

Jake Heaps had a fantastic arm and was the #1 QB in the Elite 11 competition.

That still didn't translate to CFB, because he also retained his HS-level ability to read the Defense.

No other position is as tough to predict as QB.

We're all excited about Tuttle right now. He may end up great for us, or he may not. It's tough for a school like Utah. You only get a highly touted QB every once in a while, and that guy still has decent odds of failing.

The secret, of course, is to bring in many top QB recruits and hope that one of them lives up to the hype. That's one of many big differences between USC and the rest of the world.

[sancho]

Kids like Heaps need to go to schools like USC where the superior talent around them hides their deficiencies. They just get exposed at lesser schools.

Except he would have never seen the field there. He just wasn't good enough. That was his real problem.

[LA Ute]

It's hard for me to get interested in the extent to which the talent gap is widening. I know only that it is widening, and that's kind of pleasing, but I am much more interested in the talent gap between Utah and the rest of the PAC-12. That one's narrowing, and is all but gone regarding some schools (OSU, UA, WSU, Cal, maybe Stanford) which pleases me a lot more.

[UTEopia]

Compared to last year:

Utah:

QB: Better
RB: Better. Now, this sounds weird, but Joe Williams was TERRIBLE in this game. Shyne/Moss/DHC will be better than Williams was in that game
WR: Better
OL: Worse
TE: Better

DL: Wash.
LB: Better
CB: Worse
S: Wash

K: Who knows. Probably worse
P: Better

5 betters, 2 Washes, 3 Worse.

BYU:

QB: Wash, but I'm not sold on this. I'd vote worse. What kept BYU in the game last year was Hill's two big runs, and Mangum can't do those.
RB: Worse
WR: Worse
OL: Better
TE: Better

DL: Worse
LB: Better
CB: Better
S: Worse

P: Worse
K: Wash


It may not be Las Vegas Bowl ugly, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is 54-10 ugly, where it is close at halftime and then BYU makes some mistakes and Troy and Troy bury this team.

I don't know how we can lose an all PAC 12 safety and have S be a wash. The JUCO kid may turn out to be great, but right now it is impossible to say that he is equal to Williams. I also don't know how Wichnowsky gets better unless it is because he punts fewer time. To me, that is a wash.

You are basing your better at RB in part on the basis of Joe Williams being terrible in that game. If you look at the season as a whole, which is what I assume you did at every other position, we lose our top RB producer and our best returnee is coming off ACL surgery. Until proven otherwise on the field, this is a worse, not a better.

I hope the Utes win this game but I don't see it as a gimme. A lot will depend on how BYU plays against LSU and if they come out of that game in good physical condition. Right now, give me BYU +9 and put me down for $100.

[SoCalPat]

This game won't be close.

You say this every year and it's tiresome.

[Utah]

You say this every year and it's tiresome.

And two years ago it wasn't close and last year it took 6 TO's from Utah for it to be close.

Utah has averaged a two score lead heading into the fourth quarter since the PAC-12. Credit to BYU for not quitting, but how many games have they actually had a chance to win?

For example, the Vegas Bowl game BYU never had a chance to tie the game, let alone win it.

[justaute]

Utah...most of us enjoy reading your enthusiasm, most of the time. I do have a bone to pick here.

I don't think we should pick and choose data. Two years ago, TDS also had a lot of TO's (too lazy to look it up). Without those TO's, would the game have been close? Who knows. TO is a part of the game.


And two years ago it wasn't close and last year it took 6 TO's from Utah for it to be close.

[USS Utah]

I have been hearing for over a decade about how the game with BYU won't be close. Yet outside of 2004, 2008 and 2011, they have all been close.

[Utah]

Utah...most of us enjoy reading your enthusiasm, most of the time. I do have a bone to pick here.

I don't think we should pick and choose data. Two years ago, TDS also had a lot of TO's (too lazy to look it up). Without those TO's, would the game have been close? Who knows. TO is a part of the game.

It is part of the game. My point was, even with the 6 TO's we committed, they couldn't beat us. And the reason why, is because we are much more talented than they were.

Even with our six TO's, they still lost. Why? We are that much more significantly better than them.

I'd be interested to see how many teams have committed 6 TO's and still won. I'd be that number is very, very small.

[Utah]

I have been hearing for over a decade about how the game with BYU won't be close. Yet outside of 2004, 2008 and 2011, they have all been close.

All right. When I get some time this weekend, I will look and see how close those game have really been.

For example, The Vegas Bowl gets continually brought up as a close game, but it was never close. BYU never had a chance to tie the game up, let alone win that game.

ESPN had a write up on that game about how scores aren't always the most accurate way to determine what happened in a game. They used that game as an example of a game that looked close in the box score, but in reality was never close because BYU never had the chance to even tie the game up.

Even last year, we were up 4 and received the ball with 15 mins left in the fourth quarter. We promptly went on an 11 minute drive to put us up 7. How many "equal" teams allow the other team to have the ball for 11 straight minutes? I'd bet not too many.

Finally, credit BYU for not quitting in games. They have fought to the end, outside of the 54-10 game. BUT, to say all these games have been "close"? I want to look into that and see what the games were really like.

Being down by 2 scores with a couple mins left, getting a late score and then never getting the ball back isn't "close". It's one team that is up significantly on the other, lets off the gas, while the inferior team keeps fighting. And, kudos to the inferior team for not quitting. But, doesn't mean the game was close. It means one team is a lot better, let off, the inferior team came back, and the superior team then put a lid on the game.

Here's an analogy. I hear a lot of Jazz fans talking about the Jazz and how they have played GS better than Cleveland and that shows how good the Jazz are. This isn't true at all and not comparable at all. I HIGHLY doubt GS was playing the Jazz as tough and as focused as they are playing Cleveland. I'd bet that if GS treated Utah with the same preparation and intensity as they are treating Cleveland, Utah would have been destroyed in all time record breaking fashion.

[Utah]

I found this website, who knows how reliable it is, but it is interesting:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/30stws/winning_percentage_based_on_turnover_margin_since/

According to this guy, teams with a +3 TO margin (what BYU had last year) had this record:




3 1222-197--0.86117



Good teams don't have +3 TO margins and still lose. Then, didn't BYU lose later in the year to Boise St even though BYU had a +6 TO margin?

Yeah, they are equally talented as we are.

The only people that believe that are BYU fans and media members looking to drum up interest in their shows.

[Utah]

One more stat I always like to throw around:

Before LaVell, Utah won over 70% of the games.

Since LaVell retired, Utah has won 70% of the games.

Lol.

[U-Ute]

And, to date, a high school ability to read defenses. He certainly has the arm to be elite, whether or not he can learn to read a defense will be the difference between being an NFL draft pick and just a guy who throws for a lot of yards and a lot of INTs.


Until now, he hasn't really had a chance. One way or another we'll see the real Mangum this year. He could go Heaps or he could go Beck. We don't know, and that's my only point.

[Utah]

Well, after his spring game where he threw 3 picks vs their secondary....BYU fans may be wishing they had Heaps by the end.

[U-Ute]

Well, after his spring game where he threw 3 picks vs their secondary....BYU fans may be wishing they had Heaps by the end.

Frankly, I hope this is the case.

8 in a row baby!

[sancho]

Until now, he hasn't really had a chance. One way or another we'll see the real Mangum this year. He could go Heaps or he could go Beck. We don't know, and that's my only point.

I think he had a decent chance his freshman year. But, yeah, who knows what they are getting? Not me, not Detmer.

[U-Ute]

I think he had a decent chance his freshman year. But, yeah, who knows what they are getting? Not me, not Detmer.

This is why I don't think we've seen the real Mangum yet. Plus, he was just a couple of months removed from his mission. The last defense he had read was a high school defense. Frankly I thought he did pretty well considering the circumstances, which is why I'm hedging a bit.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Andrew Gorringe does a two deep of all three in state schools every off season. He released it on Twitter this morning and is probably a little closer to reality than Utah's feelings.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170609/d5a3492bc467e16c0e6f8b76890811ef.jpg

873239395163283456

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[sancho]

probably a little closer to reality than Utah's feelings.


Yes, but Utah's depth chart is more of a prediction than a "current state of things." Last season, I imagine Gorringe had a preseaspn depth chart with a healthy mix of red/blue. The postseason depth chart, however, was pretty much all red. The perception didn't match the reality.

[Utah]

This is why I don't think we've seen the real Mangum yet. Plus, he was just a couple of months removed from his mission. The last defense he had read was a high school defense. Frankly I thought he did pretty well considering the circumstances, which is why I'm hedging a bit.

College QB's who start their freshman year usually regress or plateau. Very few ever get better.

Then, throw in that Mangum is like 42 years old...

That's not a bet I'd take. Sure, he could get better. He has the arm to do great things. But, this isn't some 19/20 year old kid learning the game. He is a full grown man. There are a bunch of NFL starting QB's younger than he is.

And, I'm not sold on his coaching as well. Ty is as unproven as they come when it comes to coaching QB's.

[Utah]

I disagree with some of Gorringe's stuff, but the biggest two are Anae and Siaosi Wilson. Both are much better than the players he has starting.

[Utah]

Also, Utah will have the four best DT's by season's end. They have better players and better coaching.

[U-Ute]

College QB's who start their freshman year usually regress or plateau. Very few ever get better.

One quibble: the good ones are in the NFL before their JR year.

[Utah]

One quibble: the good ones are in the NFL before their JR year.

Yup. And Mangum is the equivalent of a 12th year SR (in all reality, didn't he graduate in 2012? He has been out of high school for 5 years. He was at the Elite 11 with Jameis Winston, who is entering his third year IN THE NFL). To expect him to suddenly turn into this amazing QB...it's probably not realistic.

I put the over/under on his INT's after LSU and Utah at 6.5. I think he gets rocked with no RB, a suspect OL and no proven WR's.

[U-Ute]

Yup. And Mangum is the equivalent of a 12th year SR (in all reality, didn't he graduate in 2012? He has been out of high school for 5 years. He was at the Elite 11 with Jameis Winston, who is entering his third year IN THE NFL). To expect him to suddenly turn into this amazing QB...it's probably not realistic.

I put the over/under on his INT's after LSU and Utah at 6.5. I think he gets rocked with no RB, a suspect OL and no proven WR's.

Two of those years were on a mission, and then one year where he had very little practice time and was thrown in.

:deadhorse:

Time will tell where he really sits.

[Utah]

Yeah, Mangum is really starting to feel like Heaps all over again when I said I'd take Wynn over Heaps and everyone thought I was crazy.

[Applejack]

Frankly, I hope this is the case.

8 in a row baby!


Getting a bit ahead of yourself? But I like it!

[Applejack]

Andrew Gorringe does a two deep of all three in state schools every off season. He released it on Twitter this morning and is probably a little closer to reality than Utah's feelings.


Much closer to reality. Utah's love of mediocre Ute linebackers knows no bounds.

[Applejack]

You say this every year and it's tiresome.


There is nothing tiresome about winning the decade against your rival!

[Utah]

Much closer to reality. Utah's love of mediocre Ute linebackers knows no bounds.

I ate my lunch on another site. I should have Pau'u over Barton.

Is that more to your liking, or are you down on Luafatasaga?

[Utah]

I'm with all the fake outrage over Carrington, I'd love to beat them 66-6 this year. Their reaction would be incredible.

[Utah]

QB: Troy Williams, Tyler Huntley
RB: Shyne/Moss/Devontae Henry Cole
FB: Obsolete
X: Singleton, Trinnaman or Tyquez Hampton
Z: Siaosi Wilson, Samson Nacua
Slot: Simpkins, Dana
T: Barton, Capra, Peck
G: Agasiva, Uhatafe, Paulo
C: Falemaka, Koroma
TE: Fakailoatonga, Handley, Falemaka

So, on offense, you have Trinnaman and Koroma who would make the two deep, and even both of those would be fighting to make the two deep and after fall camp, it wouldn't surprise me if Hampton or Thompson bumped Trinnaman off that list and if Umana, Dixon or Grant bumped Koroma off that list.

Now, onto the defense:

DE: Anae, Hamilton/Tupai
DT: Mokofisi/Penisini
DT: Lotulelei/Fotu
DE: Fitts, Hart/Repp
LB: Luafatasaga/Barton
LB: Warner/Tauteoli
CB: Troy Smith/Tyreke Lewis
CB: Terell Burgess/Jaylon Johnson
NB: Julian Blackmon/Guidry
S: Chase Hansen/Blair
S: Ballard/Afia


Ok. So fall camp is over. My updated two deep:

QB: Utah's starter/Tanner Mangum

It sounds like Huntley might win this job. I'm still not sold on Mangum. From what I've seen, he has no faith in his WR's and relies too much on check downs. No thanks.

HB: Moss/DHC/Shyne (when he returns)

BYU can have their RB's. No thanks.

X: Carrington, Wilson
Z: Singleton, Fulks
Slot: Simpkins, Nacua

BYU has nothing at WR. Trinnamon doesn't even look like a starter.

TE: Fakailoatonga, Handley

Again, BYU has some talent but completely unproven.

T: Barton, Uhatafe, Capra

Again, BYU is close to talentless at T. Another reason why Mangum will struggle this year.

C: Falemaka/Koroma

This is the PAC-12. When talent is almost equal, I'll take the six foot four, 320lb guy over the five foot nine, 280 lb guy.

G: Kanuch, Paulo, Agasiva

I think by the end of the year, Paulo and Agasiva will be better, BUT you've gotta love a guard that came into college football with Jake Heaps.

DE: Fitts, Anae, Tupai. For the fourth spot Repp or Kaufusi.

Utah is stacked here.

DT: Lotulelei, Mokofusi, Fotu, Penisini.

Again, BYU can only dream of this type of talent.

LB: Luafatasaga, Warner, Tauteoli, Pau'u

Luafatasaga is the best LBer in the state and it's not close. Warner is really good. Tauteoli and Pau'u are very similar.

CB: Blackmon, Johnson, Hughes, Warner

Warner wouldn't start here and neither would Lake. They are both too slow.

NB: Burgess, Hobbs

After Warner and Lake, BYU has no talent.

S: Hansen, Ballard, Afia, Blair

Again, BYU's safeties are not good. And they just moved one to LB'er. They were bad last year and they lost Nacua.

So, out of 22 starters and almost 40 players, BYU has 6 players that would be on our two deep (maybe 7 with Kaufusi) and one starter.

And yet people think we will lose this game?

Fuh-gut-a-boud-it.

[Utah]

I take it back. My first list was more correct. Mangum would be fourth string at Utah. Dude is terrible. He hasn't improved at all. Ha ha.

[Utah]

Ha ha. BYU sucks.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Best stat of the night.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170903/98fcc6c80d47e4316ef41b97f8dd783c.jpg


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[LA Ute]

Maybe there is hope for the Cougars' offense. If Detmer doesn't work out as their OC, they have A-Rod waiting in the wings.

[Diehard Ute]

Maybe there is hope for the Cougars' offense. If Detmer doesn't work out as their OC, they have A-Rod waiting in the wings.

Ha!

I'm sure they'll love it. Especially since many are outraged that Detmer is OC AND QB coach.


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[U-Ute]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170903/02b522d1229af863fe7476871f5ad0f3.jpg

Ouch


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[Utah]

Lol. Weber State almost put up as many points as BYU had offensive yards.