TMobile Tourney Time - pac 12 tournament in vegas

[LA Ute]

Can we include the conference tournament in this thread? It is part of March madness, in a way.

So how about Oregon? They have a game before they play us, so maybe they will be tired. Anything to reduce their quickness will help. On defense they probably are going to press us as much as they can to force turnovers, and try to take away our three-point shots. On offense they will drive to the hoop to exploit our inside deficiency. That was the strategy UCLA used to close the gap yesterday. If Jayce is back in time to play Thursday. that may not work so well for them.

What will we do? Zone them and try to make them beat us from outside?

[Ma'ake]

Can we include the conference tournament in this thread? It is part of March madness, in a way.

So how about Oregon? They have a game before they play us, so maybe they will be tired. Anything to reduce their quickness will help. On defense they probably are going to press us as much as they can to force turnovers, and try to take away our three-point shots. On offense they will drive to the hoop to exploit our inside deficiency. That was the strategy UCLA used to close the gap yesterday. If Jayce is back in time to play Thursday. that may not work so well for them.

What will we do? Zone them and try to make them beat us from outside?

Our first game vs UO was a low point. We were up, playing well, then we turned into a turnover machine under pressure, a colossal collapse.

I'm with you, I like that they'll be on a second game in 2 nights, I'm hopeful we'll be better prepared to deal with UO's defensive pressure, and Jayce (better be) back to provide some defense in the paint.

Hopefully Wazzu shoots well and has the Ducks running everywhere to cover everything. That would certainly help us.

[sancho]

Our first game vs UO was a low point. We were up, playing well, then we turned into a turnover machine under pressure, a colossal collapse.


If some stats analytics guy would break down man-to-man defenses vs zone defenses against Utah this season, I feel reasonably confident that a pattern would emerge. Oregon plays the best man-to-man defense in the conference and is therefore a really rough match up for us.

Still, gotta play the games!

[Mormon Red Death]

Heres the bracket (https://pac-12.com/mens-basketball/mens-basketball-tournament) in case this doesnt show up:

2019 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament ScheduleT-Mobile Arena (Capacity: 18,000) – Las Vegas

Wed., March 13

Game 1: No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 ARIZONA, 12:00 p.m. PT PAC12 Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean, Jill Savage

Game 2:No. 5 COLORADO vs. No. 12 CALIFORNIA, 2:30 p.m. PT* PAC12 Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean, Jill Savage

Game 3: No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 STANFORD, 6:00 p.m. PT PAC12 Ted Robinson, Bill Walton, Lewis Johnson

Game 4: No. 6 OREGON vs. No. 11 WASHINGTON STATE, 8:30 p.m. PT* PAC12 Ted Robinson, Bill Walton, Lewis JohnsonThurs.,

March 14

Game 5: No. 1 WASHINGTON vs. Game 1 winner, 12:00 p.m. PT PAC12 Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean, Jill Savage

Game 6: No. 4 OREGON STATE vs. Game 2 winner, 2:30 p.m. PT* PAC12 Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean, Jill Savage

Game 7: No. 2 ARIZONA STATE vs. Game 3 winner, 6:00 p.m. PT PAC12 Ted Robinson, Bill Walton, Lewis Johnson

Game 8: No. 3 UTAH vs. Game 4 winner, 8:30 p.m. PT* ESPN Dave Pasch, Bill Walton, Molly McGrathFri.,

March 15

Game 9: Semifinal 1, 6:00 p.m. PT PAC12 Ted Robinson, Bill Walton, Lewis Johnson

Game 10: Semifinal 2, 8:30 p.m. PT* ESPN Dave Pasch, Bill Walton, Molly McGrathSat.,

March 16

Game 11: Championship, 7:30 p.m. PT ESPN Dave

[DrumNFeather]

I think we probably would've preferred UCLA/WSU in that 6/11 tilt, but the Cougars will be a tough out for the Ducks.

ASU will seemingly have an easy path to the semifinals (trying for the DNF curse here...hoping that Stanford or UCLA takes them out).

[DrumNFeather]

Round 1 thoughts:

Arizona/USC - This seems like it may be a contest of which team cares less. I think Arizona probably gets the win...and if you think ute fans have buyer's remorse over extending Larry through 2023...think of how USC fans feel about Enfield, who is likewise under contract through 2023.

Cal vs. Colorado - I think the Buffs have a legitimate shot at getting to the final. They are playing well and have a decent draw.

Stanford vs. UCLA - Like USC, UCLA is an underachieving squad who may just want to get the season over with. Stanford has had moments this year, including scoring 100+ over UCLA. I like the Cardinal to advance.

Oregon vs. Wazzu - Two pretty dangerous teams here in the Ernie Kent bowl. The Ducks will win...we just have to hope they are pushed so that they are tired for the game against us.

[LA Ute]

...and if you think ute fans have buyer's remorse over extending Larry through 2023...think of how USC fans feel about Enfield, who is likewise under contract through 2023.

But Enfield sure did have a burst of recruiting success early in his tenure! :rolleyes:

[DrumNFeather]

But Enfield sure did have a burst of recruiting success early in his tenure! :rolleyes:

He's got a good class coming in as well. I think he's got a set of brothers coming in over the next few years that are currently coached by Sed's dad. How about that?

[Scorcho]

first PAC-12 game of the day is Miller's - Arizona vs. Enfield's - USC, winner gets ankle bracelet removed :)

[Scorcho]

first PAC-12 game of the day is Miller's - Arizona vs. Enfield's - USC, winner gets ankle bracelet removed :)

USC with the lead in the 2nd half 57-45

[DrumNFeather]

Round 1 thoughts:

Arizona/USC - This seems like it may be a contest of which team cares less. I think Arizona probably gets the win...and if you think ute fans have buyer's remorse over extending Larry through 2023...think of how USC fans feel about Enfield, who is likewise under contract through 2023.

Cal vs. Colorado - I think the Buffs have a legitimate shot at getting to the final. They are playing well and have a decent draw.

Stanford vs. UCLA - Like USC, UCLA is an underachieving squad who may just want to get the season over with. Stanford has had moments this year, including scoring 100+ over UCLA. I like the Cardinal to advance.

Oregon vs. Wazzu - Two pretty dangerous teams here in the Ernie Kent bowl. The Ducks will win...we just have to hope they are pushed so that they are tired for the game against us.

0-1

[chrisrenrut]

0-1

What an ignominious season for Sean Miller. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

[LA Ute]

first PAC-12 game of the day is Miller's - Arizona vs. Enfield's - USC, winner gets ankle bracelet removed :)

:rofl:

[DrumNFeather]

Colorado beats Cal in a rock fight. Should be a slugfest against Oregon St. tomorrow.

[DrumNFeather]

I ended up 2-2 on my day 1 predictions. I suppose I undervalued USC and UCLA's motivation.

The trendy pick for folks today will be to pick the Ducks over the Utes. Folks on Twitter are acting like we're staring down the 90-91 UNLV Runnin Rebels here.

For today's games, I'll go with:

UW over USC
CU over OSU
ASU over UCLA
Utah over Oregon

[SoCalPat]

I think we're due a year in which we make the tournament in which we didn't deserve to make the tournament. In fact, I can't think of a year in which we rose up and stole a bid by winning the conference tournament -- although our seeding in 2004 suggested we might've missed had Jacobsen not hit that shot against UNLV. No matter -- Larry bears the brunt of blame for missing in our NIT years, but he's a good enough of a coach, we have enough talent and the league is down just enough where I think we steal a bid if we can get past Oregon today.

[sancho]

The trendy pick for folks today will be to pick the Ducks over the Utes. Folks on Twitter are acting like we're staring down the 90-91 UNLV Runnin Rebels here.


Every ranking system out there has the Ducks as a significantly better team than Utah (ESPN gives Oregon a 75% chance), and my eye test mostly agrees. Still, Oregon managed to lose a lot in the Pac-12 this season; why not one more loss?

I do think Oregon is a particularly bad match up for us. Their strengths negate our one strength - outside shooting.

A win tonight would be a great surprise.

[sancho]

Larry bears the brunt of blame for missing in our NIT years

I suspect you are referring to scheduling and not to coaching? For some reason, it's become a pet peeve of mine to hear people say that our schedule cost us NCAA bids. What is correct is that our schedule cost us additional opportunities to earn NCAA bids. In our NIT years, we had plenty of chances to secure bids and came up short. A few more good OOC games would have represented more opportunities, but it is imprecise to say that our schedule cost us bids.

[DrumNFeather]

Every ranking system out there has the Ducks as a significantly better team than Utah (ESPN gives Oregon a 75% chance), and my eye test mostly agrees. Still, Oregon managed to lose a lot in the Pac-12 this season; why not one more loss?

I do think Oregon is a particularly bad match up for us. Their strengths negate our one strength - outside shooting.

A win tonight would be a great surprise.

If Bol stays healthy, Oregon is easily a tournament team...so there's no question that this will be a tough game for us. Hopefully Sed and PVD get some good looks early.

[FountainOfUte]

I suspect you are referring to scheduling and not to coaching? For some reason, it's become a pet peeve of mine to hear people say that our schedule cost us NCAA bids. What is correct is that our schedule cost us additional opportunities to earn NCAA bids. In our NIT years, we had plenty of chances to secure bids and came up short. A few more good OOC games would have represented more opportunities, but it is imprecise to say that our schedule cost us bids.

Yes and no, right? Isn't the problem, ironically, more about our wins than our losses? What I've heard suggested is that we're beating TOO crappy of crappy teams. Everyone plays pushovers, but beating some team rated +300 is worse for our SOS than losing to a team rated, say +170-ish.

So, I agree, we had opportunities that we lost by actually losing. But our scheduling on the bottom end has created for us a ball-and-chain that's almost impossible to shake unless we go bonkers in conf.

Anyway, here's to the Runnin Utes getting the Altman albatross (duck?) off their necks.

[sancho]

So, I agree, we had opportunities that we lost by actually losing. But our scheduling on the bottom end has created for us a ball-and-chain that's almost impossible to shake unless we go bonkers in conf.


Our NIT years would have still been NIT years if we had beaten 200 level teams instead of 300 level teams. At the time, with the transparent RPI, we could calculate what our RPI would have been without the anchor of the really bad teams. It was still not the RPI of an at-large team. Last season in particular, USC was like a carbon copy of Utah in terms of quality wins but with 200 level opponents in place of the 300 level teams. They had the better RPI due to their scheduling, and it wasn't enough.

The thing that kept us out was a lack of quality wins. We definitely didn't need to go "bonkers in conference". We just needed to win a few of those games against at-large teams that instead were close losses. If we had replaced our 300-level teams with at-large quality teams, we may have won some of those games and earned a spot. But a simple improvement of the schedule alone would not have been enough for us.

100%, yes, our scheduling was awful and was a mistake, especially considering how transparent the RPI was. But it is not accurate to say that our scheduling alone cost us NCAA bids.

[DrumNFeather]

Washington and USC going down to the wire here. 3 point game with 1:44 to play.

[DrumNFeather]

Washington and USC going down to the wire here. 3 point game with 1:44 to play.

78-75 final. Huskies hang on. I tell ya, this team can be had. I would not at all be surprised to see the winner of CU/OSU beat them.

[sancho]

78-75 final. Huskies hang on. I tell ya, this team can be had. I would not at all be surprised to see the winner of CU/OSU beat them.

Go fighting Tinkles!

[UTEopia]

How would you attack Oregon's press. I would start Battin, Tillman, Allen, Sed and PVD to see if there is a scheme that can successfully attack it. I don't think either Jayce or Topa can be of much help. If there is, then you can rotate those guys in. I don't give us more than a 10% chance of winning.

[LA Ute]

We’ve got to end this scoring drought.

[sancho]

I think we need to push hard against this press. Tillman has drawn multiple fouls on the drive. Just keep going at them.

[LA Ute]

Hard to give Oregon credit for half of the turnovers. We’re just attempting bad passes.

[sancho]

It's the Donnie and Jayce show!

[chrisrenrut]

Feels like if we get down by more than 5 points, it may be an insurmountable lead.

[sancho]

I'm glad these refs finally realized that we were all staying up late to watch them.

[LA Ute]

Sure would be nice if some of our three point attempts would fall.

[sancho]

Sure would be nice if some of our three point attempts would fall.

I think if we get any good looks, they'll go down, but we haven't had many good looks at all. I still think our best offense against this D involves Allen and Tillman getting to the rim.

[LA Ute]

We’re watching a Utah team with no three-point shooting. It’s a wonder we’re still in the game. If some of those will start falling, we will be in this game.

[LA Ute]

I think if we get any good looks, they'll go down, but we haven't had many good looks at all. I still think our best offense against this D involves Allen and Tillman getting to the rim.

That’s what has worked, but we are attempting the threes now.

[sancho]

That’s what has worked, but we are attempting the threes now.

We're forcing the threes, which is why we're missing them. Many of our attempts have been bad decisions or desperate shots at the end of the clock. You're right, though. The three is our identity. We need to find a way to get some open looks for Sed and/or PVD and hope they can break the ice.

[LA Ute]

It’s starting to looks like the wheels have pretty much come off. Let’s see what miracles we have in our pockets.

[LA Ute]

It’s starting to looks like the wheels have pretty much come off. Let’s see what miracles we have in our pockets.

No miracles.

[sancho]

No miracles.

Not this time. Couldn't get the stops when we needed them. Time to focus on Zion and whoever emerges as a cinderella.

[chrisrenrut]

Not this time. Couldn't get the stops when we needed them. Time to focus on Zion and whoever emerges as a cinderella.

Go USU Aggies!

[LA Ute]

I think the teams I hate losing to most are Arizona and Oregon. Probably because they beat us so often.

As Rick Majerus used to say, we need better players.

[Mormon Red Death]

I think the teams I hate losing to most are Arizona and Oregon. Probably because they beat us so often.

As Rick Majerus used to say, we need better players.

Damn.. had an all Utah parlay (weber, uvu, suu usu Utah moneyline parlay). Had to hedge with $150 on Oregon tonight

[mUUser]

Sure would be nice if some of our three point attempts would fall.


I think I could've gone 2-23 on half-court heaves this season.

[DrumNFeather]

Interesting to see similarly coached teams in Utah and Oregon St., who were so hyper-focused on getting byes come out flat in their respective games. I suppose we should be rooting for Oregon vs. Colorado if we want the league to get three bids.

[LA Ute]

Larry’s problem is that he must find a way to eke out wins so that he can attract better, more talented players. So far he’s been pretty good at that, but not quite good enough. In crunch time, such as the conference tournament, scenarios like last night emerge: We come up against a more talented team. We can stymie them for a while with tough defense and a disciplined offense (as long as we are hitting shots from somewhere, whether it be three-point land or getting to the hoop like Allen did last night), but sooner or later our opponent’s talent tips the scale and teams like Oregon start to be able to do pretty much what they want to us.

The biggest flaw I see in Larry‘s team is that they lack basketball IQ. I think this is coaching. Going back to the Majerus days, his teams could win despite being less talented because they had at that IQ. These Utes, as much as I love them, lost composure last night. I think half the turnovers they gave up were the result of dumb passes or simple lack of attention.

So right now, recruits that we persuade to look at our program will think, “Hmmm, Solid coach who will help me develop as a player, but the Utah program is always going to be bunch of tough, gritty guys who can win a big game now and then but when it gets to conference tournament quarterfinals, the NCAA tournament, even the NIT, they’re going to get stopped by one of the more talented programs.. Do I want to go there or do I want to go someplace where the ceiling is higher?”

Unfortunately, that is what Larry‘s body of work has come to be. I hope like crazy that the talented young guys on the team can gel next year and take the program to a slightly higher, more attractive level. It’s possible. That hope is what keeps Utes fans’ hearts beating.

[sancho]

I suppose we should be rooting for Oregon vs. Colorado if we want the league to get three bids.

I'm not sure I care about how many bids the league gets. There is some small amount of money involved for us, but it's not enough to make me root for teams that beat us down. I'd rather have CU than Oregon steal a bid if someone has to.

[Scorcho]

Larry’s problem is that he must find a way to eke out wins so that he can attract better, more talented players. So far he’s been pretty good at that, but not quite good enough. In crunch time, such as the conference tournament, scenarios like last night emerge: We come up against a more talented team. We can stymie them for a while with tough defense and a disciplined offense (as long as we are hitting shots from somewhere, whether it be three-point land or getting to the hoop like Allen did last night), but sooner or later our opponent’s talent tips the scale and teams like Oregon start to be able to do pretty much what they want to us.

The biggest flaw I see in Larry‘s team is that they lack basketball IQ. I think this is coaching. Going back to the Majerus days, his teams could win despite being less talented because they had at that IQ. These Utes, as much as I love them, lost composure last night. I think half the turnovers they gave up were the result of dumb passes or simple lack of attention.

So right now, recruits that we persuade to look at our program will think, “Hmmm, Solid coach who will help me develop as a player, but the Utah program is always going to be bunch of tough, gritty guys who can win a big game now and then but when it gets to conference tournament quarterfinals, the NCAA tournament, even the NIT, they’re going to get stopped by one of the more talented programs.. Do I want to go there or do I want to go someplace where the ceiling is higher?”

Unfortunately, that is what Larry‘s body of work has come to be. I hope like crazy that the talented young guys on the team can gel next year and take the program to a slightly higher, more attractive level. It’s possible. That hope is what keeps Utes fans’ hearts beating.

good points! I started to jot down some thoughts and quickly realized I was too depressed. :cry:

[UBlender]

Interesting to see similarly coached teams in Utah and Oregon St., who were so hyper-focused on getting byes come out flat in their respective games. I suppose we should be rooting for Oregon vs. Colorado if we want the league to get three bids.

Do you think ASU gets in without at least winning tonight? I think the PAC 12's best chance would be CU over ASU in the title game. CU has a really nice chance to set themselves up here. From what I understand they should have just about everyone back next year so a nice run this year puts them in a position to be one of the favorites in the conference heading into next year.

The PAC 12 desperately needs a couple of teams to emerge as nationally relevant juggernauts to fill the void of UCLA and Arizona--right now UW and CU seem best positioned to do this (though they are still a far cry from the powerhouses that UCLA and Arizona have been/are supposed to be).

[SoCalPat]

Larry’s problem is that he must find a way to eke out wins so that he can attract better, more talented players. So far he’s been pretty good at that, but not quite good enough. In crunch time, such as the conference tournament, scenarios like last night emerge: We come up against a more talented team. We can stymie them for a while with tough defense and a disciplined offense (as long as we are hitting shots from somewhere, whether it be three-point land or getting to the hoop like Allen did last night), but sooner or later our opponent’s talent tips the scale and teams like Oregon start to be able to do pretty much what they want to us.

The biggest flaw I see in Larry‘s team is that they lack basketball IQ. I think this is coaching. Going back to the Majerus days, his teams could win despite being less talented because they had at that IQ. These Utes, as much as I love them, lost composure last night. I think half the turnovers they gave up were the result of dumb passes or simple lack of attention.

So right now, recruits that we persuade to look at our program will think, “Hmmm, Solid coach who will help me develop as a player, but the Utah program is always going to be bunch of tough, gritty guys who can win a big game now and then but when it gets to conference tournament quarterfinals, the NCAA tournament, even the NIT, they’re going to get stopped by one of the more talented programs.. Do I want to go there or do I want to go someplace where the ceiling is higher?”

Unfortunately, that is what Larry‘s body of work has come to be. I hope like crazy that the talented young guys on the team can gel next year and take the program to a slightly higher, more attractive level. It’s possible. That hope is what keeps Utes fans’ hearts beating.

I think next year is a massive indicator year for Larry and his long-term future at Utah. The league the last two years has not lived up to the heights it reached in 2016 (seven NCAA bids) and 2017 (gobs of talent and 3 teams that were top 3 seeds in the tournament, including a FF team in Oregon). No program has benefitted from this malaise more than Utah, which gets top 4 finishes and byes in Vegas and does nothing with them (it was sobering to see Duke play in the lead-up to our game last night and have the same seed in their conference tournament as Utah, and we're not even going to the NIT). This malaise is something I'm not convinced will last forever.

We're in a tough spot. We need to see noticeable improvement next year, but where are we willing to land? On the low end of the spectrum, we're a bubble team and miss out while getting a high seed in the NIT. On the high end of the spectrum, we're comfortably in, but are hardly a lock to win a game in the Dance.

Even with the upgrades to the schedule, our non-con was literally dead in the middle of D-1, per Pomeroy, ranking 174th. Our overall SOS of 68 sounds nice, but it's incredibly weak compared to other P5 leagues -- the only P5s you'll see with worse SOS are all in the Pac-12. Until proven otherwise, we cannot count on this league to raise our SOS in league play. The 300-plus dreck has to come off the schedule. I'll allow for one such game, but not four. SOS still a millstone around our necks.

I'm puzzled by our inability to defend for long stretches. Last night was a microcosm of our season. We were good in the first half, abysmal in the second half. Defense just shouldn't be so inconsistent. This year's defense was equally as bad as our defense in our 5-win season (2012 was 262nd, this year's 260th, per Pomeroy), and that team didn't have nearly the talent or the advantage of playing with leads. The parallels between this year's team and Giacoletti's last team are very concerning, and we all knew Ray had checked out well before the season was over with. What's Larry's excuse? If this is his one-year "sabbatical," there are worse things to have endured, but we can't see this extend into next year.

[DrumNFeather]

Do you think ASU gets in without at least winning tonight? I think the PAC 12's best chance would be CU over ASU in the title game. CU has a really nice chance to set themselves up here. From what I understand they should have just about everyone back next year so a nice run this year puts them in a position to be one of the favorites in the conference heading into next year.

The PAC 12 desperately needs a couple of teams to emerge as nationally relevant juggernauts to fill the void of UCLA and Arizona--right now UW and CU seem best positioned to do this (though they are still a far cry from the powerhouses that UCLA and Arizona have been/are supposed to be).

As of this morning, Joe Lunardi has ASU at the top of his list for his last four byes. A couple of teams on that list are still playing (Temple, Ohio St.) and a couple that are in the last four in/first four out are still playing as well (Florida, Alabama, Xavier). So there are certainly teams that could knock them out...but right now they seem pretty safely in.

[SoCalPat]

Do you think ASU gets in without at least winning tonight?

ASU is a lock if they win tonight, but I'm not sure a loss is that damaging. It's a Q2 loss on a neutral floor, right?

[DrumNFeather]

I think next year is a massive indicator year for Larry and his long-term future at Utah. The league the last two years has not lived up to the heights it reached in 2016 (seven NCAA bids) and 2017 (gobs of talent and 3 teams that were top 3 seeds in the tournament, including a FF team in Oregon). No program has benefitted from this malaise more than Utah, which gets top 4 finishes and byes in Vegas and does nothing with them (it was sobering to see Duke play in the lead-up to our game last night and have the same seed in their conference tournament as Utah, and we're not even going to the NIT).

We're in a tough spot. We need to see noticeable improvement next year, but where are we willing to land? On the low end of the spectrum, we're a bubble team and miss out while getting a high seed in the NIT. On the high end of the spectrum, we're comfortably in, but are hardly a lock to win a game in the Dance.

Even with the upgrades to the schedule, our non-con was literally dead in the middle of D-1, per Pomeroy, ranking 174th. Our overall SOS of 68 sounds nice, but it's incredibly weak compared to other P5 leagues -- the only P5s you'll see with worse SOS are all in the Pac-12. Until proven otherwise, we cannot count on this league to raise our SOS in league play. The 300-plus dreck has to come off the schedule. I'll allow for one such game, but not four. SOS still a millstone around our necks.

I'm puzzled by our inability to defend for long stretches. Last night was a microcosm of our season. We were good in the first half, abysmal in the second half. Defense just shouldn't be so inconsistent. This year's defense was equally as bad as our defense in our 5-win season (2012 was 262nd, this year's 260th, per Pomeroy), and that team didn't have nearly the talent or the advantage of playing with leads. The parallels between this year's team and Giacoletti's last team are very concerning, and we all knew Ray had checked out well before the season was over with. What's Larry's excuse? If this is his one-year "sabbatical," there are worse things to have endured, but we can't see this extend into next year.

On your scheduling point - I've been taking a deep dive into what it looks like for next year, what we did this year and there are just a lot of weird things. For example, Cal and WSU were both 250 plus NET ranking teams for most of the season. The only power 5 or 6 team that even came close to that was Wake Forest in the ACC. All of the other power 5/6 leagues capped out somewhere in the 150s. That's huge. Any Pac 12 team that hosts Cal and Wazzu is getting a Q4 win and even going on the road at those schools is pretty much the same. Cal's 3 game streak and WSU's improvement inflate their NET numbers a little bit as well, but Cal was close to 300 all year and WSU wasn't that much better. That is a HUGE anchor for this league in terms of SOS.

I'm going to do a longer post on this, but we've only got 5 or so spots to fill on our schedule for next year as it currently stands...so absolutely, we need to lose the SWAC schools. We also need to play all of our non-conference games and not cap out at 11 like we've done the last two years.

[sancho]

Even with the upgrades to the schedule, our non-con was literally dead in the middle of D-1, per Pomeroy, ranking 174th. Our overall SOS of 68 sounds nice, but it's incredibly weak compared to other P5 leagues -- the only P5s you'll see with worse SOS are all in the Pac-12. Until proven otherwise, we cannot count on this league to raise our SOS in league play. The 300-plus dreck has to come off the schedule. I'll allow for one such game, but not four. SOS still a millstone around our necks.


The SOS issues this year are mostly a result of the awfulness of the conference. Take our OOC games, and place us in the ACC, the Big12, the Big10, or the SEC, and our SOS is quite good.

[DrumNFeather]

The SOS issues this year are mostly a result of the awfulness of the conference. Take our OOC games, and place us in the ACC, the Big12, the Big10, or the SEC, and our SOS is quite good.

How the NET is actually calculated is a bit of a mystery, much to my chagrin. However, I think things really turned for us schedule-wise when we lost to Hawaii and Subsequently NW. We beat Hawaii and even if we lose to Seton Hall...that's a Q1 loss on a neutral court, and I suspect places us firmly in the NET top 80 or so based on the rest of our season results.

All that said, it seems pretty easy these days to manufacture a schedule that is going to have you at least on the bubble if you are .500 in league play. That's where Utah needs to get to...a couple of small tweaks and they will have that next year.

[sancho]

All that said, it seems pretty easy these days to manufacture a schedule that is going to have you at least on the bubble if you are .500 in league play. That's where Utah needs to get to...a couple of small tweaks and they will have that next year.

Agreed, assuming this year's Pac-12 is an aberration. No OOC schedule would have placed us on the bubble at .500 in this year's Pac-12.

[Scorcho]

I think next year is a massive indicator year for Larry and his long-term future at Utah. The league the last two years has not lived up to the heights it reached in 2016 (seven NCAA bids) and 2017 (gobs of talent and 3 teams that were top 3 seeds in the tournament, including a FF team in Oregon). No program has benefitted from this malaise more than Utah, which gets top 4 finishes and byes in Vegas and does nothing with them (it was sobering to see Duke play in the lead-up to our game last night and have the same seed in their conference tournament as Utah, and we're not even going to the NIT). This malaise is something I'm not convinced will last forever.

We're in a tough spot. We need to see noticeable improvement next year, but where are we willing to land? On the low end of the spectrum, we're a bubble team and miss out while getting a high seed in the NIT. On the high end of the spectrum, we're comfortably in, but are hardly a lock to win a game in the Dance.

Even with the upgrades to the schedule, our non-con was literally dead in the middle of D-1, per Pomeroy, ranking 174th. Our overall SOS of 68 sounds nice, but it's incredibly weak compared to other P5 leagues -- the only P5s you'll see with worse SOS are all in the Pac-12. Until proven otherwise, we cannot count on this league to raise our SOS in league play. The 300-plus dreck has to come off the schedule. I'll allow for one such game, but not four. SOS still a millstone around our necks.

I'm puzzled by our inability to defend for long stretches. Last night was a microcosm of our season. We were good in the first half, abysmal in the second half. Defense just shouldn't be so inconsistent. This year's defense was equally as bad as our defense in our 5-win season (2012 was 262nd, this year's 260th, per Pomeroy), and that team didn't have nearly the talent or the advantage of playing with leads. The parallels between this year's team and Giacoletti's last team are very concerning, and we all knew Ray had checked out well before the season was over with. What's Larry's excuse? If this is his one-year "sabbatical," there are worse things to have endured, but we can't see this extend into next year.

Don Maclean had a sound explanation about why the PAC-12 was down this year. I can't recall all of it, but the conference was 31st out of 32 conferences in number of players returning. There were some other points, but I just caught it in passing and meant to look it up before I forgot it. Another thing that gives me hope is that the conference does have 3 schools in the top 10 of 2019 recruiting (AZ, USC and Oregon). UW is #21 and Utah is #32.

I'm hoping that LK can keep this core intact (Allen, Gach and Tillman seem to have bright futures). I expect Charles Jones to leave.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool

[sancho]

How the NET is actually calculated is a bit of a mystery, much to my chagrin.

It would be nice if it were transparent. But, at least the NET more or less matches all the experts. There's not much difference between the NET, Sagarin, KenPom, and ESPNBPI. I would rather have agreement in those things than the transparency of the super-dumb RPI.

[DrumNFeather]

Washington outlasts the Buffs. Oregon up early on ASU.

[DrumNFeather]

Oregon up 35 to 28 at the half.

I know they put a ton up on us in the second half, but to hold this team to 18 in a half is pretty impressive.

[DrumNFeather]

Ducks get it done in OT.

UW vs. Oregon in the final. ASU now has to sweat it out. I still think they are in, but if a bunch of bids get stolen, who knows?

[UTEopia]

I'm puzzled by our inability to defend for long stretches. Last night was a microcosm of our season. We were good in the first half, abysmal in the second half. Defense just shouldn't be so inconsistent. This year's defense was equally as bad as our defense in our 5-win season (2012 was 262nd, this year's 260th, per Pomeroy), and that team didn't have nearly the talent or the advantage of playing with leads. The parallels between this year's team and Giacoletti's last team are very concerning, and we all knew Ray had checked out well before the season was over with. What's Larry's excuse? If this is his one-year "sabbatical," there are worse things to have endured, but we can't see this extend into next year.

I'm not sure our defensive effort changed. The pace of play changed for Oregon. They were able to force turnovers and get steals that led to easy baskets. They were also pushing the tempo off of defensive rebounds and even made shots, something they did not do in the first half. Maybe our lack of a bench caused us to be tired, which contributed to both the turnovers and the half-court defense. Gach played very little and when he was in thought he could dribble into double and triple teams. Neither Battin nor Topa provided help on either end of the court. Larry went with the guys he can trust and they ran out of gas.

[DrumNFeather]

Ducks get the win...so the Pac 12 is seemingly a 3 team league.

The Ducks go in with the auto bid and currently have a net ranking of 56 (which will go up)
Washington carries a NET of 38, which will go down, but they should still be in.
ASU may be back in the first four, but I still think they've got the best resume. Net ranking of 63.

[Old Standing ute]

Ducks get the win...so the Pac 12 is seemingly a 3 team league.

The Ducks go in with the auto bid and currently have a net ranking of 56 (which will go up)
Washington carries a NET of 38, which will go down, but they should still be in.
ASU may be back in the first four, but I still think they've got the best resume. Net ranking of 63.

Ducks by 20.
They might win a game or 2 in tournament.