PAC-12, MWC, WCC NCAA tourney wins

[Ex'dute]

My question is this: Which conference from the western U.S. will win the most games in the NCAA tourney?

(This is only counting games that begin on Thursday and Friday. Saint Mary's and Boise State are in play-in games, but for the purposes of this question, a team would have to win a game after the tourney gets down to 64 teams).

The PAC-12 got 5 teams into the Big Dance, but if you go by seeding, the league is only expected to win two games -- Arizona over Belmont and UCLA over Minnesota. No PAC-12 team is expected to make it to the Sweet 16.

The Mountain West also got five teams in, but they are seeded to get five wins -- with Colorado State, UNLV and SDSU seeded to each win one game and New Mexico seeded for two wins.

The WCC is seeded to win four games -- all by Gonzaga, which is seeded to lose to Louisville in the Final Four.

I wouldn't be surprised at all, however, if the PAC-12 won the most games out of the three leagues. Much will be determined by the UNLV vs. Cal opening round game and a potential Arizona vs. New Mexico game in the second round.

My bracket has it this way:
PAC-12 -- 6 wins
MWC -- 3 wins
WCC -- 1 win (I have Pitt beating Gonzaga on Saturday)

Am I nuts?

What do you think?

[Newbomb Turk]

I think that all three of those conferences will win 3 to 4 games. I have varying numbers on varying brackets. I do think that the Zags will win a couple. I also think that Oregon could be a surprise (based on their seed).

[Flystripper]

I have:

PAC 0
MWC 4
WCC 4

I am not one of those BYU fans that is a Pac 12 hater. I usually get accused of being a Pac 12 homer if anything. I just don't like the Pac 12's match-ups in this tournament.

I currently live in So Cal and watch a ton of Pac 12 hoops. The Pac 12 will probably win a couple of games I just don't have them winning in my brackets. I will admit that part of this is that I now am in pools with a bunch of Pac 12 homers and need to differentiate my bracket a bit.

I think you are overvaluing the Pac 12 and undervaluing Gonzaga and the power of a number 1 seed.

[Ex'dute]

I have:

PAC 0
MWC 4
WCC 4

I am not one of those BYU fans that is a Pac 12 hater. I usually get accused of being a Pac 12 homer if anything. I just don't like the Pac 12's match-ups in this tournament.

I currently live in So Cal and watch a ton of Pac 12 hoops. The Pac 12 will probably win a couple of games I just don't have them winning in my brackets. I will admit that part of this is that I now am in pools with a bunch of Pac 12 homers and need to differentiate my bracket a bit.

I think you are overvaluing the Pac 12 and undervaluing Gonzaga and the power of a number 1 seed.


The fact of the matter is that I wouldn't be that shocked if you were right. I just think Oregon could be Sweet 16 team and Cal will beat UNLV in its backyard and that Arizona can beat New Mexico. Then again, I could see those teams flaming out early too.

Gonzaga is really good. They could easily get to the Final 4. I just had to pick one major upset in the second round and the RPI/BPI guys all think Pitt is underrated.

[GarthUte]

Would a play-in win for St Mary's count? I vote no. No matter how hard the NCAA tries, I will not be calling the play-in games "round one" of the tournament.

Nor will I. Round one is, has been and always will be the first Thursday and Friday of March Madness. I call the play-in games play-in games. Because they are playing to be in the first round.

[GarthUte]

I don't have any idea how many games will be won by any respective conference, but I filled out a bracket that has the MWC and the PAC 12 winning at least 5 games each. UCLA with 5 games and UNM with 5 games.

That's right. I have UCLA and UNM playing for all the marbles, with UCLA bringing the championship to the PAC 12. Call me crazy if you wish - rather, call my gut crazy, as that's how I filled out the bracket - but that's my call and I'm sticking to it. :rockon:

[SoCalPat]

Would a play-in win for St Mary's count? I vote no. No matter how hard the NCAA tries, I will not be calling the play-in games "round one" of the tournament.

If Utah is ever in this game, damn straight I'll be counting it. And I suspect most of you will come around as well.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

The fact of the matter is that I wouldn't be that shocked if you were right. I just think Oregon could be Sweet 16 team and Cal will beat UNLV in its backyard and that Arizona can beat New Mexico. Then again, I could see those teams flaming out early too.

Gonzaga is really good. They could easily get to the Final 4. I just had to pick one major upset in the second round and the RPI/BPI guys all think Pitt is underrated.

The problem is Oregon has to shoot like it did last weekend for that to happen, they haven't done that consistently since January. If they play well and beat Okie St I would like their chances Saturday, I'm not expecting Loyd and Dotson to get 35+, so I'm concerned.

Arizona isn't quite there this year, I do think UCLA can be dangerous, I'd never bet against SU so Cal and Monty could go on a run. Colorado doesn't go deeper than one win.

[SoCalPat]

The problem is Oregon has to shoot like it did last weekend for that to happen, they haven't done that consistently since January. If they play well and beat Okie St I would like their chances Saturday, I'm not expecting Loyd and Dotson to get 35+, so I'm concerned.

Arizona isn't quite there this year, I do think UCLA can be dangerous, I'd never bet against SU so Cal and Monty could go on a run. Colorado doesn't go deeper than one win.

Altman will coach circles around Travis Ford. This might be one of the biggest coaching mismatches in the opening round. Fear not.

[FountainOfUte]

If Utah is ever in this game, damn straight I'll be counting it. And I suspect most of you will come around as well.

Yes, I'll count it... as the play-in game.

[SeattleUte]

My question is this: Which conference from the western U.S. will win the most games in the NCAA tourney?

(This is only counting games that begin on Thursday and Friday. Saint Mary's and Boise State are in play-in games, but for the purposes of this question, a team would have to win a game after the tourney gets down to 64 teams).

The PAC-12 got 5 teams into the Big Dance, but if you go by seeding, the league is only expected to win two games -- Arizona over Belmont and UCLA over Minnesota. No PAC-12 team is expected to make it to the Sweet 16.

The Mountain West also got five teams in, but they are seeded to get five wins -- with Colorado State, UNLV and SDSU seeded to each win one game and New Mexico seeded for two wins.

The WCC is seeded to win four games -- all by Gonzaga, which is seeded to lose to Louisville in the Final Four.

I wouldn't be surprised at all, however, if the PAC-12 won the most games out of the three leagues. Much will be determined by the UNLV vs. Cal opening round game and a potential Arizona vs. New Mexico game in the second round.

My bracket has it this way:
PAC-12 -- 6 wins
MWC -- 3 wins
WCC -- 1 win (I have Pitt beating Gonzaga on Saturday)

Am I nuts?

What do you think?

You're not nuts.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Altman will coach circles around Travis Ford. This might be one of the biggest coaching mismatches in the opening round. Fear not.

I love you Dana Altman!

[SoCalPat]

Altman will coach circles around Travis Ford. This might be one of the biggest coaching mismatches in the opening round. Fear not.

That hit nothing but the bottom of the net from 30 feet out

[LA Ute]

Oregon as a 12 seed is unfair to both the Ducks and the Cowboys. Ducks should be a 6 or 7.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Oregon as a 12 seed is unfair to both the Ducks and the Cowboys. Ducks should be a 6 or 7.

For all the angst in Eugene since Sunday, the reality is now being a 12 is much better than being a 7-10. Now the Ducks get a 4 instead of a 1/2. St. Louis looks really tough, but I'd take my chances there instead of Louisville or Georgetown.

[Rocker Ute]

AZ looks to be the real deal. I can't believe we hung with this team all year.

[GarthUte]

Well, there goes one side of my bracket. Damn you Harvard! (but well done)

[Jarid in Cedar]

After 1/4 of the round 1 games, you have

Pac-12: 1-0, 5 teams left
WCC: 1-1, 1 team left
MWC: 0-0, 4 teams left

Update

Pac-12: 3-0
MWC: 1-2
WCC: 1-1

[FountainOfUte]

Update

Pac-12: 3-0
MWC: 1-2
WCC: 1-1

Maybe it's a little too early to feel smug, but I've been suspecting something like this would happen. I've seen a lot of smack coming from MWC fans and even BYU fans who want to pump up the WCC and play down the PAC. My thought all along is that what really matters is post season performance, not conference RPI or Sagrin rating.

At the end of the day, what the PAC teams provide that are in lighter supply in the MWC and WCC is size, athleticism, and depth. In other words, teams that are simply built to make deeper runs against diverse opponents.

I still have a warm spot in my heart for the MWC and want to see them do well, but the MWC myopia in hoops has gotten a little out of hand in the last year or so.

Go PAC-12. I hope we get to join our brothers in the Dance soon.

[SeattleUte]

I have:

PAC 0
MWC 4
WCC 4

I am not one of those BYU fans that is a Pac 12 hater. I usually get accused of being a Pac 12 homer if anything. I just don't like the Pac 12's match-ups in this tournament.

I currently live in So Cal and watch a ton of Pac 12 hoops. The Pac 12 will probably win a couple of games I just don't have them winning in my brackets. I will admit that part of this is that I now am in pools with a bunch of Pac 12 homers and need to differentiate my bracket a bit.

I think you are overvaluing the Pac 12 and undervaluing Gonzaga and the power of a number 1 seed.

lol

[Solon]

In Vegas last week, MRD and I bumped into several fans from MWC schools (not to mention the multitudes of UNLV locals) while we were volunteering at the homeless shelter, reading to the blind, and otherwise engaged in purely wholesome activities.

Twice we were asked if we wished Utah were back in the MWC (once by SDSU, once by someone in red - UNLV or NM, can't remember).
:laughter:

I think UNLV always plays over its head in the MWC tourney because home-court is a big advantage for them. Then they poop it away in the NCAA tourney.

[U-Ute]

My bracket:


MWC: 5 wins - All 4 win first round, I had New Mexico losing in the Sweet 16 (NEVER AGAIN LOBOS!! DO YOU HEAR ME!?)
P12: 3 wins - Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado win, nobody in the Sweet 16.
WCC: 3 wins - I have Gonzaga into losing in the Elite 8 (lack of depth will hurt them going back-to-back with Wisconsin and Ohio St).

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I love you Dana Altman!

Bum!

[Jarid in Cedar]

bum!

tmi!!

[LA Ute]

So apparently Ben Howland's about to get fired. I can understand the frustration after the first-round loss this year, but the guy did win his conference and took UCLA to 3 straight Final Fours (2006-2008). I wonder how they will attract a decent successor after firing a guy with that record -- especially with the salary UCLA is willing to pay?

EDIT: Interesting ESPN article about Howland here (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/story/_/id/9082625/status-ucla-bruins-basketball-coach-ben-howland-stirs-much-debate).

[Ex'dute]

Well, I guess I wasn't crazy in the original post on this thread.

After the first weekend of NCAA action it stands at:
PAC-12 --- 5 wins with 2 teams still remaining in the Sweet 16.
MWC -- 2 wins with zero teams remaining.
WCC -- 1 win (Saint Mary's play-in win doesn't count as per the original post) with zero teams remaining.

Amazingly, four of the five MWC losses came to 12, 13, 14 and 15-seeded teams. Only CSU lost to a team it was supposed to lose to based on seeding. Talk about an overrated conference.

[LA Ute]

Sweet 16 by conference:

Big10 - 4 teams
Big East - 3
Pac-12 - 2
ACC - 2
Big12 - 1
SEC - 1
A-10 - 1
MVC - 1
Atlantic Sun - 1

I guess there's conference RPI success and there's conference success in the Tournament.